Towards an Accurate Estimation of COVID-19 Cases in Kazakhstan: Back-Casting and Capture–Recapture Approaches
Sarría-Santamera A. Abdukadyrov N. Glushkova N. Peck D.R. Colet P. Yeskendir A. Asúnsolo A. Ortega M.A.
February 2022MDPI
Medicina (Lithuania)
2022#58Issue 2
Background and Objectives: Coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) has emerged as the most devastating syndemic of the 21st century, with worrisome and sustained consequences for the entire society. Despite the relative success of vaccination programs, the global threat of the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 is still present and further efforts are needed for its containment and control. Essential for its control and containment is getting closer to understanding the actual extent of SARS-CoV-2 infections. Material and Methods: We present a model based on the mortality data of Kazakhstan for the estimation of the underlying epidemic dynamic—with both the lag time from infection to death and the infection fatality rate. For the estimation of the actual number of infected individuals in Kazakhstan, we used both back-casting and capture–recapture methods. Results: Our results suggest that despite the increased testing capabilities in Kazakhstan, official case reporting undercounts the number of infections by at least 60%. Even though our count of deaths may be either over or underestimated, our methodology could be a more accurate approach for the following: the estimation of the actual magnitude of the pandemic; aiding the identification of different epidemiological values; and reducing data bias. Conclusions: For optimal epidemiological surveillance and control efforts, our study may lead to an increased awareness of the effect of COVID-19 in this region and globally, and aid in the implementation of more effective screening and diagnostic measures.
Back-casting approach , Capture–recapture method , COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2
Text of the article Перейти на текст статьи
Department of Medicine, School of Medicine, Nazarbayev University, Nur-Sultan, 020000, Kazakhstan
Departement of Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Sciences, University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, 60607, IL, United States
Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Evidence-Based Medicine, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty, 050040, Kazakhstan
Independent Researcher, Madrid, 28410, Spain
Department of Surgery, Medical and Social Sciences, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Alcalá, Madrid, Alcalá de Henares, 28801, Spain
Ramón y Cajal Institute of Health Research (IRYCIS), Madrid, 28034, Spain
Department of Medicine and Medical Specialties, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Alcalá, Madrid, Alcalá de Henares, 28801, Spain
Department of Medicine
Departement of Mathematics
Department of Epidemiology
Independent Researcher
Department of Surgery
Ramón y Cajal Institute of Health Research (IRYCIS)
Department of Medicine and Medical Specialties
10 лет помогаем публиковать статьи Международный издатель
Книга Публикация научной статьи Волощук 2026 Book Publication of a scientific article 2026