Kazakhstan’s strategic leadership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization: institutional innovation and regional integration dynamics in Central Asia
Bitleuov A. Kurmangali A. Shaimordanova Z. Poujol C.
26 February 2025Institute of Society Transformation
Economic Annals-XXI
2025#213Issue 1-24 - 17 pp.
Introduction. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization has emerged as a significant multilateral platform representing approximately 42% of global population and 36% of world GDP, yet its institutional effectiveness and integration potential remain subjects of scholarly debate. This study examines Kazakhstan’s strategic leadership during its 2023-2024 chairmanship of the SCO, analyzing the country’s role in advancing institutional cohesion and promoting Central Asian regional integration within the context of evolving great power competition and alternative governance mechanisms. Methods. Through comprehensive mixed-methods analysis incorporating quantitative trade data, institutional assessment, and diplomatic evaluation, the research examines Kazakhstan’s chairmanship impact on SCO development. Data sources include official statistics from the Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan, Chinese General Administration of Customs, SCO Secretariat documents, and diplomatic materials from the 24th SCO Summit in Astana (July 3-4, 2024). The analysis encompasses 247 bilateral trade relationships, 156 investment projects, and 89 infrastructure initiatives across SCO membership during the study period. Results. Kazakhstan’s foreign trade turnover reached USD 139.8 billion in 2023, representing a 3.2% increase, with trade relationships with SCO member states showing remarkable growth. China became Kazakhstan’s largest trading partner with bilateral trade hitting USD 31.5 billion in 2023, marking a 30% increase, while total SCO trade reached USD 95.2 billion in 2024, representing 39% cumulative growth over six years. The analysis reveals that Kazakhstan successfully facilitated the adoption of 25 strategic frameworks during the Astana Summit, including formal admission of Belarus as the organization’s tenth member state. Security cooperation achieved 100% member participation in counterterrorism initiatives with 34% threat reduction and 31% improvement in drug trafficking prevention. Discussion. The findings demonstrate that Kazakhstan’s multi-vector diplomatic approach successfully mediated competing interests between major powers while advancing region-specific initiatives. Economic diversification accelerated significantly with non-oil exports reaching USD 25.3 billion (32% of total exports), agriculture and food sector trade growing 15.6% in 2024, and manufacturing cooperation expanding 12.3%. However, persistent challenges include great power competition dynamics, institutional overlap with alternative frameworks, and asymmetric member capabilities that constrain deeper integration potential. Scientific Novelty. This research provides the first comprehensive empirical analysis of middle power institutional leadership within the SCO framework, introducing a novel analytical approach that integrates quantitative economic indicators with qualitative diplomatic assessment. The study challenges traditional assumptions about power distribution in multilateral institutions by demonstrating how middle powers can exercise meaningful influence through sophisticated diplomatic balancing and institutional entrepreneurship. Practical Implications. The findings offer crucial insights for policymakers regarding effective leadership strategies in multilateral institutions and provide evidence-based guidance for developing alternative regional cooperation models. The research demonstrates that consensus-based approaches to regional cooperation can achieve substantial practical results while respecting sovereignty principles, offering valuable lessons for other developing regions seeking to enhance international cooperation without formal supranational integration.
Central Asia , Eurasian Diplomacy , Institutional Leadership , Kazakhstan , Multilateralism , Regional Integration , Shanghai Cooperation Organization
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Sorbonne-Kazakhstan Institute, Abai Kazakh National Pedagogical University, 13 Dostyk Ave., Almaty, 050010, Kazakhstan
Kazakh Ablai Khan University of International Relations and World Languages, 200 Muratbaev Str., Almaty, 050000, Kazakhstan
National Institute of Oriental Languages and Civilisations, 65 Grands Moulins Str., Paris, 75013, France
Sorbonne-Kazakhstan Institute
Kazakh Ablai Khan University of International Relations and World Languages
National Institute of Oriental Languages and Civilisations
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