Development of Mathematical Models Taking into Account the Effect of Isolating Individuals in a Population

Amanbaev T.R. Antony S.J.
June 2022 Pleiades journals

Mathematical Models and Computer Simulations
2022 #14 Issue 3 466 - 479 pp.

Abstract: The effect of the isolation of individuals in the population on the dynamics of the epidemic is analyzed. Based on the SIR model, a SIRDi model is built that takes into account the isolation of individuals, as well as the presence of deceased patients, which is appropriate to use in cases of widespread infection, when the number of infected is comparable to the number of susceptible individuals. Simplified IRD and IRDi models are proposed for studying the spread of an infectious disease at the initial stage of an epidemic (or for the case when the rate of infection is not high). It is found that there is a threshold value of the coefficient (fraction) of isolation, which delimits the qualitatively different behavior of the epidemic indicators of the population system. A comparison is made between different models. It is shown that the simplified (IRDi) and more complex (SIRDi) models at the initial stage of the epidemic give approximately the same results.

epidemic , isolation factor , reproduction indices , SIR model

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Auezov South Kazakhstan University, Shymkent, Kazakhstan
Institute of Mathematics and Mathematical Modeling, Almaty, Kazakhstan
University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom

Auezov South Kazakhstan University
Institute of Mathematics and Mathematical Modeling
University of Leeds

10 лет помогаем публиковать статьи Международный издатель

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