New Approaches to Solving Flood and Breakthrough Wave Modeling Problems
Ziyatbekova G.
2026Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
IEEE Access
2026#1416245 - 16254 pp.
The article deals with modern methodological approaches to mathematical modeling of flood processes and breakthrough waves, taking into account the geometric characteristics of reservoirs, hydraulic structures, and terrain. The limitations of classical one-dimensional models are critically analyzed, and an improved hybrid approach is proposed that combines empirical dependencies with numerical solutions of hydrodynamic equations. Particular attention is paid to the three-dimensional description of the breakthrough wave propagation process using simplified forms of the Navier–Stokes equations in the plane, which allows estimating the flood front in a mode close to real time.The proposed hybrid model demonstrates a minimum improvement of 33% and a maximum improvement of 77% in prediction accuracy compared to baseline one-dimensional and purely empirical models, depending on reservoir geometry and boundary conditions. The expediency of integrating mathematical models into software and hardware monitoring systems, including forecasting algorithms, sensor systems, and operational warning systems, is also substantiated. Numerical simulation results obtained for different types of reservoirs indicate a reduction in computational time by 40-60% while maintaining acceptable accuracy for real-time applications.The presented results of numerical modeling for different types of reservoirs demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods for civil protection, evacuation planning, and reducing the risks of catastrophic flooding. The main scientific and practical problem is the insufficient accuracy and limited applicability of traditional one-dimensional models in cases of complex reservoir geometry and non-stationary hydrodynamic conditions, which makes it impossible to use them for operational forecasting. In order to overcome these limitations, a hybrid mathematical model has been developed and analysed, combining a simplified three-dimensional description of the break wave with computationally efficient numerical algorithms designed for integration into real-time monitoring systems.
Breakthrough wave , flood forecasting , flood modeling , hybrid model , hydraulic structures , mathematical model , Navier-Stokes equation , software and hardware complex , terrain , three-dimensional numerical modeling
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Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Almaty Technological University, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Institute of Information and Computational Technologies, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Al-Farabi Kazakh National University
Almaty Technological University
Institute of Information and Computational Technologies
10 лет помогаем публиковать статьи Международный издатель
Книга Публикация научной статьи Волощук 2026 Book Publication of a scientific article 2026