Statistical Analysis of the Situation in Geostationary Orbits
Zhumagulov A. Serebryanskiy A. Reva I. Voropaev V.
20 June 2025al-Farabi Kazakh State National University
International Journal of Mathematics and Physics
2025#16Issue 129 - 40 pp.
This study uses statistical analysis to examine near-miss events (NME) in geostationary earth orbit (GEO) from 2011 to 2024. The analysis is based on orbital propagation derived from GEO orbital element catalogs and observational data of events. Results show an overall increase in NMEs, which can be attributed to new satellite launches and better space debris fragment detection. The average daily distribution of NMEs is not symmetrical longitudinally; more events happen at 75°E longitude than at 255°E. How-ever, potentially dangerous NMEs within 10 km are more common at 255°E. The relationship between the average daily number of events and the minimum object separation changes over time. From 2011 to 2024, daily dangerous NMEs within 1 km increased from 0.24 to 0.39 events/day. Based on a 20-meter collision threshold, the 2024 data suggests a potential collision event in geostationary orbit every eight years. If current trends continue, collisions in GEO could happen every six years by 2030 and every four years by 2040.
Geostationary orbit , Near-Earth Space , Near-Miss Events , Space debris , Space situational awareness
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Fesenkov astrophysical institute, Observatory 23, Almaty, 050020, Kazakhstan
Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics, Miusskaya sq., 4, Moscow, 125047, Russian Federation
Fesenkov astrophysical institute
Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics
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