SPACE WEATHER INFLUENCE ON SEISMIC ACTIVITY: ANALYZING THE MAY 1, 2011, MW 5.1 EARTHQUAKE IN KAZAKHSTAN
Zhumabayev B.T. Altaibek A.A. Sarsembayeva A.T. Nurtas M.
2025National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Kazakhstan
News of the National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Series of Geology and Technical Sciences
2025#2025Issue 4109 - 124 pp.
In recent years, questions about the possible influence of space weather factors on seismic activity have become increasingly relevant, especially in regions where tectonic faults are further affected by anthropogenic factors, such as the creation of artificial reservoirs and changes in hydrogeological conditions. This study focuses on the earthquake with magnitude MW = 5.1 that occurred on May 1, 2011, near the Kapchagay reservoir in Kazakhstan. The main aim of the study is to reveal a potential relationship between geophysical processes in the lithosphere and the effects of space weather, including solar wind, magnetic field parameters, and SYM/H index variations. The analysis is based on data from regional and global seismological catalogs, measurements of geomagnetic field parameters, solar wind data, and mathematical models describing electromagnetic initiation of earthquakes. It was found that 28 hours before the main seismic event, a powerful pulse of solar wind was recorded, causing notable changes in geomagnetic field parameters and accompanied by anomalies in the electrical conductivity of the fault. These observations are consistent with models predicting that solar flares may trigger earthquakes in electrically conductive faults of the Earths crust, especially when conductivity is increased by anthropogenic factors. The results suggest that the investigated earthquake could have been triggered by a combination of space weather and local geophysical conditions. Further and more detailed studies of similar events in other regions are required to confirm this hypothesis and to expand scientific understanding of the mechanisms behind such phenomena.
artificial reservoir , earthquake in Kazakhstan , earthquake precursor , space weather , tectonic fault
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Institute of Ionosphere, Almaty, Kazakhstan
International Information Technology University, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Department of theoretical and nuclear physics, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Institute of Ionosphere
International Information Technology University
Department of theoretical and nuclear physics
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