Central Asian Compound Flooding in 2024 Contributed by Climate Warming and Interannual Variability
Zhang W. Li L. Zhou T. Brody M. He Q. Xu M. Madibekov A.
October 2025Science Press
Advances in Atmospheric Sciences
2025#42Issue 102195 - 2202 pp.
Extensive flooding swept across large areas of Central Asia, mainly over Kazakhstan and southwestern Russia, from late March to April 2024. It was reported to be the worst flooding in the area in the past 70 years and caused widespread devastation to society and infrastructure. However, the drivers of this record-breaking flood remain unexplored. Here, we show that the record-breaking floods were contributed by both long-term climate warming and interannual variability, with multiple climatic drivers at play across the synoptic to seasonal timescales. First, the heavy snowmelt in March 2024 was associated with above-normal preceding winter snow accumulation. Second, extreme rainfall was at a record-high during March 2024, in line with its increasing trend under climate warming. Third, the snowmelt and extreme rainfall in March were compounded by record-high soil moisture conditions in the preceding winter, which was a result of interannual variability and related to excessive winter rainfall over Central Asia. As climate warming continues, the interplay between the increasing trend of extreme rainfall, interannual variations in soil moisture pre-conditions, as well as shifting timing and magnitudes of spring snowmelt, will further increase and complicate spring flooding risks. This is a growing and widespread challenge for the mid- to high-latitude regions.
climate warming , compound flooding , extreme rainfall , interannual variability , snowmelt , soil moisture
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Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China
International Agricultural University, Tashkent, 111200, Uzbekistan
George Mason University, Fairfax, 22030, VA, United States
China Institute of Desert Meteorology, CMA, Urumqi, 830046, China
Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science and Frozen Soil Engineering, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, 730000, China
Institute of Geography and water safety, Almaty, 050010, Kazakhstan
Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
International Agricultural University
George Mason University
China Institute of Desert Meteorology
Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science and Frozen Soil Engineering
Institute of Geography and water safety
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