Qualitative analysis of stakeholder risk perceptions in Kazakhstans energy transformation
Zhakiyev N. Khamzina A. Bakdolotov A. De Miglio R.
2026Frontiers Media SA
Frontiers in Sustainability
2026#6
Introduction: Kazakhstans pledge to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 confronts a legacy of coal and oil dependence and the intertwined technical, economic, and social risks of a rapid energy transition. Because implementation will hinge on stakeholder cooperation, understanding how different actors perceive these risks is essential. Methods: We conducted a two-round Policy Delphi with stakeholders, including government officials, managers from national companies, financiers/investors, experts, and civil society representatives. Responses were organized using a four-quadrant risk framework that distinguishes implementation from consequential risks and transition risks from physical climate risks. Results: All risks raised by participants could be located within this framework, indicating that it captures the main concerns in the Kazakhstani context. Implementation-transition risks dominated, led by regulatory volatility, financing constraints, grid bottlenecks, fossil-fuel lobbying, and skills shortages. These risks were consistently rated as highly important across stakeholder groups, although financiers and civil society actors were less concerned about policy instability than government officials and experts. Discussion: By clarifying where stakeholders perceive the greatest implementation risks, the study provides a practical risk map to prioritize reforms in regulation, finance, grid development, and skills, and adds a stakeholder-based perspective to research and policy debates on energy transitions in fossil-fuel-dependent economies such as Kazakhstan. Copyright
Delphi method , Kazakhstan , low-carbon transition , risk concern , the energy transition
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Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, United States
School of Intelligent Systems, Astana IT University, Astana, Kazakhstan
School of Digital Public Administration, Astana IT University, Astana, Kazakhstan
Economic Research Institute JSC, Astana, Kazakhstan
Senior Energy Consultant and Lead Architect of the Energy System Model of Kazakhstan, Turin, Italy
Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies
School of Intelligent Systems
School of Digital Public Administration
Economic Research Institute JSC
Senior Energy Consultant and Lead Architect of the Energy System Model of Kazakhstan
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Книга Публикация научной статьи Волощук 2026 Book Publication of a scientific article 2026