Forecasting of GHG Emissions from Energy and Industrial Sectors of Kazakhstan and Assessment of Mitigation Scenarios with High Share of Renewables

Zhakiyev N. Kayisli K. Kushekkaliyev A. Sagadatova N. Biloshchytskyi A.
July 2025 Gazi Universitesi

International Journal of Renewable Energy Research
2025 #15 Issue 2 300 - 309 pp.

This study leverages the TIMES-KAZ model and linear regression techniques to explore strategies for reducing emissions from energy and industrial sectors by integration more renewables. The scenario analysis of Kazakhstan’s energy sector reveals a progressive shift towards cleaner energy sources, with increased investments in renewables, particularly in the Current Measures (CM) and Current and Additional Measures (CAM) scenarios. Despite this, complexities arise in emission patterns, particularly within the heat production sector, highlighting the need for a balanced energy transition approach. The analysis of Kazakhstan’s industrial sector indicates a rising trend in GHG emissions, driven primarily by growth in metallurgy and mineral industries with consideration green hydrogen. The CAM scenario integrate advanced low-carbon technologies like hydrogen-based steel production, integration of renewables and electric arc furnaces, demonstrates the potential to cut emissions by half by 2035.

Greenhouse gas emissions , industrial sector , Kazakhstan , mitigation , renewable integration , scenario analysis

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Department of Science and Innovation, Astana IT University, Astana, Kazakhstan
Department of Physics, West Kazakhstan University, Uralsk, Kazakhstan
Department of Electrical-Electronic Engineering, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey
Department of Intelligent Systems and Cybersecurity, Astana IT University, Astana, Kazakhstan

Department of Science and Innovation
Department of Physics
Department of Electrical-Electronic Engineering
Department of Intelligent Systems and Cybersecurity

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