Comprehensive Scenario Analyses for Coal exit and Renewable Energy Development Planning of Kazakhstan using PyPSA-KZ
Zhakiyev N. Akhmetov Y. Omirgaliyev R. Mukatov B. Baisakalova N. Zhakiyeva S. Kazbekov B.
June 2024Engineered Science Publisher
Engineered Science
2024#29
This article focuses on the application of Python for Energy System Analysis (PyPSA) in modelling future energy scenarios for the Kazakhstan’s energy system. The study addresses the challenges inherent in Kazakhstans energy sector and explores how PyPSA can play a pivotal role in supporting the countrys transition to sustainable, green energy. In this paper, the PyPSA-KZ model of Kazakhstan power system is proposed for accurate energy modeling and investment planning for the period up to 2040. The model is adapted considering the characteristics of Kazakhstans power plants, hourly demand profiles for each administrative zone, and marginal electricity generation costs for each power plant and cost of each energy carrier. Validation of the model is carried out by running the Business-as-Usual scenario for 2020 and comparing the results with official reports. After validation, three investment scenarios are studied: i) renewable energy with 30% share, ii) coal exit scenario, and iii) 30% RES share with transmission line expansion, followed by determining the cost-optimal solution for 2040. Across all scenarios, emphasis is placed on increasing the contribution of wind and solar energy. The outcomes of the scenario modeling hold significant implications for policy formulation, effective energy management, and strategic investment planning in Kazakhstan.
Power system modeling , PyPSA-Earth , PyPSA-KZ , Renewable energy , Spatial modeling
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Department of Computational and Data Science, Astana IT University, Astana, 010000, Kazakhstan
Department of Electrical Engineering, Nazarbayev University, Astana, 010000, Kazakhstan
Department of Computer Engineering, Astana IT University, Astana, 010000, Kazakhstan
Department of Science and Innovations, Astana IT University, Astana, 010000, Kazakhstan
Department of Mathematical and Computer Modeling, L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University, Astana, 010008, Kazakhstan
Department of Computational and Data Science
Department of Electrical Engineering
Department of Computer Engineering
Department of Science and Innovations
Department of Mathematical and Computer Modeling
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