Analysis of chronic kidney disease epidemiology in Kazakhstan using nationwide data for 2014–2020 and forecasting future trends of prevalence and mortality for 2030
Zhakhina G. Mussina K. Yerdessov S. Gusmanov A. Sakko Y. Kim V. Syssoyev D. Madikenova M. Assan A. Kuanshaliyeva Z. Turebekov D. Yergaliyev K. Bekishev B. Gaipov A.
2024Taylor and Francis Ltd.
Renal Failure
2024#46Issue 1
According to the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, chronic kidney disease (CKD) was prevalent in 697.5 million individuals worldwide in 2017. By 2040, it is anticipated that CKD will rank as the fifth most common cause of death. This study aims to examine the epidemiology of CKD in Kazakhstan and to project future trends in CKD prevalence and mortality by 2030. The retrospective analysis was performed on a database acquired from the Unified National Electronic Health System for 703,122 patients with CKD between 2014 and 2020. During the observation period, 444,404 women and 258,718 men were registered with CKD, 459,900 (66%) were Kazakhs and 47% were older than 50. The incidence rate notably decreased: 6365 people per million population (PMP) in 2014 and 4040 people PMP in 2020. The prevalence changed from 10,346 to 38,287 people PMP, and the mortality rate increased dramatically from 279 PMP to 916 PMP. Kazakhstan’s central regions, Turkestan and Kyzylorda were identified as the most burdensome ones. The ARIMA model projected 1,504,694 expected prevalent cases in 2030. The predicted mortality climbed from 17,068 cases in 2020 to 37,305 deaths in 2030. By 2030, the prevalence and mortality of CKD will significantly increase, according to the predicted model. A thorough action plan with effective risk factor management, enhanced screening among risk populations, and prompt treatment are required to lessen the burden of disease in Kazakhstan.
Chronic kidney disease , mortality forecasting , nationwide administrative data , prevalence forecasting , risk factor , survival analysis
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Department of Medicine, School of Medicine, Nazarbayev University, Astana, Kazakhstan
Department of Medicine, Khoja Akhmet Yassawi International Kazakh-Turkish University, Turkistan, Kazakhstan
Clinical Academic Department of Internal Medicine, CF “University Medical Center”, Astana, Kazakhstan
Department of Internal Medicine and Nephrology, Astana Medical University, Astana, Kazakhstan
Graduate School of Public Policy, Nazarbayev University, Astana, Kazakhstan
Department of Extracorporeal Hemocorrection, National Research Cardiac Surgery Center, Astana, Kazakhstan
Department of Medicine
Department of Medicine
Clinical Academic Department of Internal Medicine
Department of Internal Medicine and Nephrology
Graduate School of Public Policy
Department of Extracorporeal Hemocorrection
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