River basin management under spatial inequality and land use dynamics
Zhaken A. Dentinho T.P. Saspugayeva G. Kamet M. Shapatova G. Kassymkhanov S. Zhumagalieva Z. Tsiganov A.P. Sedelev V.
Winter 2026GJESM Publication
Global Journal of Environmental Science and Management
2026#12Issue 11 - 20 pp.
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Effective management of water resources requires a clear understanding of how socio-economic factors, land suitability, and environmental constraints interact. In Kazakhstan, pronounced disparities in economic structure, ecological capacity, and hydrological access pose major challenges for sustainable resource governance. This study examines the appropriateness of land and water resources in the diverse regions of Kazakhstan, utilizing a spatially explicit analytical framework that combines demographic, economic, and environmental data. The primary goal is to pinpoint regional vulnerabilities and provide evidence-based insights for adaptive land and water management under changing water availability and infrastructure conditions, highlighting the interaction between water resource management, spatial inequality, and land use dynamics. METHODS: The evaluation merged demographic and employment data with land use, hydrological, and economic indicators. A spatial interaction model for land use was employed to simulate land allocation and agricultural productivity under contrasting environmental scenarios. Input datasets included river discharge, groundwater depth, soil fertility, crop yield, market accessibility, and transport network density. Twelve plots, each measuring between 0.5 and 1 hectare, were used for micro-experimental water allocation trials in the Esil and Irtysh River Basins. These trials aimed to calibrate model parameters that pertain to irrigation response and farmer decision-making under water scarcity. FINDINGS: The model highlighted marked regional variations in agricultural potential. Employment in agriculture, forestry, and fisheries was highly spatially concentrated, with a coefficient of variation of 100.4 percent, indicating localized dependence on natural resources. Under simulated water stress, the land suitability index declined by 12.7 percent and hydrological accessibility decreased by 25.9 percent, whereas infrastructure expansion increased these indicators by 11.1 percent and 3.4 percent, respectively. The increase in groundwater depth from 12.4 meters to 14.9 meters under water stress highlights the growing risk of extraction and a decrease in irrigation viability. These results demonstrate that environmental constraints and socio-economic inequalities jointly shape the spatial distribution of agricultural activity and the vulnerability of rural livelihoods. CONCLUSION: In Kazakhstan, the combination of water availability and infrastructure connectivity is essential for determining the distribution, productivity, and sustainability of its agricultural sector. The findings provide quantitative evidence that investment in rural transport networks can mitigate some of the negative effects of water scarcity by improving access to markets and irrigation infrastructure.
Agricultural land use , Food security , Spatial interaction models , Sustainable development , Water scarcity
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Department of Environmental Engineering and Management, Faculty of Natural Sciences, L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University, Satpayev Street 2, Astana, 010000, Kazakhstan
Faculty of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, University of Azores, MQ58+98, Angra do Heroísmo, Portugal
School of Sciences and Humanities, Nazarbayev University, Kabanbay Batyr Avenue 53, Astana, 010000, Kazakhstan
Department of Morphology, NCJSC Karaganda Medical University, Gogol Street 40, Karaganda, 100000, Kazakhstan
School of Architecture, Civil Engineering and Energy, NJSC D. Serikbayev East Kazakhstan Technical University, D. Serikbayev Street 19, Ust-Kamenogorsk, 071000, Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan University of Innovation and Telecommunications Systems, Uralsk, Kazakhstan
Department of Ecology and Geography, Sarsen Amanzholov East Kazakhstan University, Vinogradova Street 8-21, Ust-Kamenogorsk, 470010, Kazakhstan
Department of Environmental Engineering and Management
Faculty of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences
School of Sciences and Humanities
Department of Morphology
School of Architecture
Kazakhstan University of Innovation and Telecommunications Systems
Department of Ecology and Geography
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