Simulating the Spread of Peste des Petits Ruminants inKazakhstan Using the North American Animal Disease Spread Model
Yessenbayev K. Mukhanbetkaliyev Y. Yessembekova G. Kadyrov A. Sultanov A. Bainiyazov A. Bakishev T. Nkamwesiga J. Korennoy F. Abdrakhmanov S.
2023Wiley-Hindawi
Transboundary and Emerging Diseases
2023#2023
In this study, we simulated the potential spread of Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) between small ruminant (SR) farms in the Republic of Kazakhstan (RK) in case of the disease’s introduction into the country. Te simulation was based on actual data on the location and population of SR farms in the RK using the North American Animal Disease Spread Model (NAADSM). Te NAADSM employs the stochastic simulations of the between-farm disease spread predicated on the SIR compartmental epidemic model. Te most important epidemiological indicators of PPR, demography of SR farms, and livestock management characteristics in the RK were used for model parameterization. Tis article considers several scenarios for the initial introduction of PPR into the territory of Kazakhstan, based on previously identified high-risk regions and varying sizes of initially infected farms. It is demonstrated that the duration and size of the outbreak do not depend on the size of initially infected farms but rather depend on the livestock concentration and number of farms in the affected area. Tis implies that the outbreak may affect the largest number of farms in the case of introduction of the disease into farms in southern Kazakhstan. However, even in the most unfavorable scenario, the total number of affected farms does not exceed 2.4% of all SR farms in the RK. Te size of the affected area is, in most cases, no larger than an averaged 2-level administrative division’s size, which suggests the scale of a local epidemic. Te chosen model provides ample opportunity to study the impact of different control and prevention measures on the spread of PPR as well as to assess the potential economic damage.
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S. Seifullin Kazakh Agrotechnical University, Nur-Sultan (Astana), Kazakhstan
Kazakh Research Veterinary Institute, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Dahlem Research School of Biomedical Sciences, Department of Veterinary Medicine, Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany
International Livestock Research Institute, Animal and Human Health Program, Kampala, Uganda
Federal Center for Animal Health (FGBI ARRIAH), Vladimir, Russian Federation
S. Seifullin Kazakh Agrotechnical University
Kazakh Research Veterinary Institute
Dahlem Research School of Biomedical Sciences
International Livestock Research Institute
Federal Center for Animal Health (FGBI ARRIAH)
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