DIGITAL MODELING OF DECISION-MAKING RISKS IN NATURAL AND MAN-CAUSED CRITICAL SITUATIONS
Yesmagambetova M. Ten T. Ospanova T. Belginova S. Alibekkyzy K.
15 August 2022Little Lion Scientific
Journal of Theoretical and Applied Information Technology
2022#100Issue 154628 - 4640 pp.
The purpose of the work is to create mathematical and methodological support for a dynamic digital information-analytical system for operational and situational assessment and forecasting of flood threats in the activities of administrative authorities in emergency conditions. The East Kazakhstan region was chosen as the region under study. A high category highway was chosen as a critical flood object. Operational monitoring satellite information arrives at the analysis center with a frequency of 12 hours, forming an uncontrolled time window. To solve this problem, a simulation model has been developed for predicting the dynamics of flooding in the area and identifying the critical vector of flooding in a 12-hour time interval with a pixel accuracy of 200 meters and a given time lag. A criterion for measuring the danger for a controlled object - a motor road - from the intensity and dynamics of flooding in the mathematical form of the roadway stability coefficient has been selected. It is proposed to evaluate the level and dynamics of danger by reducing the coefficient of roadway stability as a function of the distance to the predicted flood boundary. The stability coefficient depends on the hydrodynamic pressure, which is largely functionally determined by the volume of water in large nearby natural and artificial reservoirs. Long-term changes in the volume of water in natural reservoirs have been studied and empirical models for forecasting volumes for monthly and annual periods have been constructed. A mathematical model for assessing the risk and reliability of decision-making under the conditions of parametric uncertainty of control agents of the road structure stability control system has been developed.
Decision Making , Distribution Law , Flood , Geosystems , Hydrodynamics , Model , Probability , Process , Simulation
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L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian national University, Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan
Karaganda University of Kazpotrebsoyuz, Karaganda, Kazakhstan
Turan University, Almaty, Kazakhstan
D. Serikbayev East Kazakhstan Technical University, Ust-Kamenogorsk, Kazakhstan
L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian national University
Karaganda University of Kazpotrebsoyuz
Turan University
D. Serikbayev East Kazakhstan Technical University
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