Research on Evaporation Duct Height Prediction Modeling in the Yellow and Bohai Seas Using BLA-EDH
Wu X. Li L. Zhang Z. Chen C. Liu H.
October 2025Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI)
Atmosphere
2025#16Issue 10
Evaporation Duct Height (EDH) is a crucial parameter in evaporation duct modeling, as it directly influences the strength of the waveguide trapping effect and significantly impacts the over-the-horizon detection performance of maritime radars. To address the limitations of low prediction accuracy and limited interpretability in existing deep learning models under complex marine meteorological conditions, this study proposes a surrogate model, BLA-EDH, designed to emulate the output of the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) model for real-time EDH estimation. Experimental results demonstrate that BLA-EDH can effectively replace the traditional NPS model for real-time EDH prediction, achieving higher accuracy than Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models. Random Forest analysis identifies relative humidity (0.2966), wind speed (0.2786), and 2-m air temperature (0.2409) as the most influential environmental variables, with importance scores exceeding those of other factors. Validation using the parabolic equation shows that BLA-EDH attains excellent fitting performance, with coefficients of determination reaching 0.9999 and 0.9997 in the vertical and horizontal dimensions, respectively. This research provides a robust foundation for modeling radio wave propagation in the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea regions and offers valuable insights for the development of marine communication and radar detection systems.
attention mechanism , BLA-EDH , evaporation duct height , parabolic equation , random forest
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School of Information and Electrical Engineering, Hebei University of Engineering, Handan, 056038, China
Department of Physics and Technology, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty, 050040, Kazakhstan
School of Information and Electrical Engineering
Department of Physics and Technology
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