Reduced SIR Model of COVID-19 Pandemic
Vinitsky S.I. Gusev A.A. Derbov V.L. Krassovitskiy P.M. Pen’kov F.M. Chuluunbaatar G.
March 2021Pleiades journals
Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Physics
2021#61Issue 3376 - 387 pp.
Abstract: We propose a mathematical model of COVID-19 pandemic preserving an optimal balance between the adequate description of a pandemic by SIR model and simplicity of practical estimates. As base model equations, we derive two-parameter nonlinear first-order ordinary differential equations with retarded time argument, applicable to any community (country, city, etc.).The presented examples of modeling the pandemic development depending on two parameters: the time of possible dissemination of infection by one virus carrier and the probability of contamination of a healthy population member in a contact with an infected one per unit time, e.g., a day, is in qualitative agreement with the dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic. The proposed model is compared with the SIR model.
COVID-19 pandemic , first-order nonlinear ordinary differential equations , mathematical model , SIR model
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JINR, Dubna, 141980, Russian Federation
RUDN, Moscow, 117198, Russian Federation
SSU, Saratov, 410012, Russian Federation
INP, Almaty, 050032, Kazakhstan
Al-Farabi KazNU, Almaty, 050040, Kazakhstan
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Al-Farabi KazNU
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