Using machine learning to identify important predictors of COVID-19 infection prevention behaviors during the early phase of the pandemic

Van Lissa C.J. Stroebe W. vanDellen M.R. Leander N.P. Agostini M. Draws T. Grygoryshyn A. Gützgow B. Kreienkamp J. Vetter C.S. Abakoumkin G. Abdul Khaiyom J.H. Ahmedi V. Akkas H. Almenara C.A. Atta M. Bagci S.C. Basel S. Kida E.B. Bernardo A.B.I. Buttrick N.R. Chobthamkit P. Choi H.-S. Cristea M. Csaba S. Damnjanović K. Danyliuk I. Dash A. Di Santo D. Douglas K.M. Enea V. Faller D.G. Fitzsimons G.J. Gheorghiu A. Gómez Á. Hamaidia A. Han Q. Helmy M. Hudiyana J. Jeronimus B.F. Jiang D.-Y. Jovanović V. Kamenov Kende A. Keng S.-L. Thanh Kieu T.T. Koc Y. Kovyazina K. Kozytska I. Krause J. Kruglanksi A.W. Kurapov A. Kutlaca M. Lantos N.A. Lemay E.P., Jr. Jaya Lesmana C.B. Louis W.R. Lueders A. Malik N.I. Martinez A.P. McCabe K.O. Mehulić J. Milla M.N. Mohammed I. Molinario E. Moyano M. Muhammad H. Mula S. Muluk H. Myroniuk S. Najafi R. Nisa C.F. Nyúl B. OKeefe P.A. Olivas Osuna J.J. Osin E.N. Park J. Pica G. Pierro A. Rees J.H. Reitsema A.M. Resta E. Rullo M. Ryan M.K. Samekin A. Santtila P. Sasin E.M. Schumpe B.M. Selim H.A. Stanton M.V. Sultana S. Sutton R.M. Tseliou E. Utsugi A. Anne van Breen J. Van Veen K. Vázquez A. Wollast R. Wai-Lan Yeung V. Zand S. Žeželj I.L. Zheng B. Zick A. Zúñiga C. Bélanger J.J.
8 April 2022 Cell Press

Patterns
2022 #3 Issue 4

Before vaccines for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) became available, a set of infection-prevention behaviors constituted the primary means to mitigate the virus spread. Our study aimed to identify important predictors of this set of behaviors. Whereas social and health psychological theories suggest a limited set of predictors, machine-learning analyses can identify correlates from a larger pool of candidate predictors. We used random forests to rank 115 candidate correlates of infection-prevention behavior in 56,072 participants across 28 countries, administered in March to May 2020. The machine-learning model predicted 52% of the variance in infection-prevention behavior in a separate test sample—exceeding the performance of psychological models of health behavior. Results indicated the two most important predictors related to individual-level injunctive norms. Illustrating how data-driven methods can complement theory, some of the most important predictors were not derived from theories of health behavior—and some theoretically derived predictors were relatively unimportant.

COVID-19 , DSML2: Proof-of-concept: Data science output has been formulated, implemented, and tested for one domain/problem , health behaviors , machine learning , public goods dilemma , random forest , social norms

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Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
University of Groningen, Gronigen, Netherlands
University of Georgia, Athens, GA, United States
Delft University of Technology, Delft, Netherlands
University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
University of Thessaly, Volos, Greece
International Islamic University Malaysia, Selangor, Malaysia
University of Pristina, Kosovo, Pristina
Ankara Science University, Ankara, Turkey
Universidad Peruana de Ciencias Aplicadas, Lima, Peru
University of Sargodha, Punjab, Pakistan
Sabanci University, Tuzla, Turkey
New York University Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
De La Salle University, Metro Manila, Philippines
University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, United States
Thammasat University, Bangkok, Thailand
Sungkyunkwan University, Seoul, South Korea
Heriot Watt University, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
ELTE Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest, Hungary
University of Belgrade, Beograd, Serbia
Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, Kyiv, Ukraine
Leuphana University of Luneburg, Lüneburg, Germany
University “La Sapienza”, Rome, Italy
University of Kent, Canterbury, United Kingdom
Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Iași, Romania
Duke University, Durham, NC, United States
Universidad Nacional de Educacion a Distancia, Madrid, Spain
Setif 2 University, Setif, Algeria
University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom
Sultan Qaboos University, Muscat, Oman
Menoufia University, Al Minufiyah, Shibin Al Kawm, Egypt
Universitas Indonesia, Jawa Barat, Indonesia
National Chung-Cheng University, Chiayi, Taiwan
University of Novi Sad, Novi Sad, Serbia
University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia
Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
HCMC University of Education, Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam
Republic of Kazakhstan
University of Maryland, College Park, MD, United States
Durham University, Durham, United Kingdom
Udayana University, Kuta Selatan, Indonesia
The University of Queensland, St. Lucia, QLD, Australia
University of Limerick, Limerick, Ireland
The University of Sheffield, Sheffield, United Kingdom
Carleton University, Ottawa, ON, Canada
Usmanu Danfodiyo University Sokoto, Sokoto, Nigeria
Florida Gulf Coast University, Fort Myers, FL, United States
University of Córdoba, Córdoba, Spain
University of Peshawar, Peshawar, Pakistan
University of Padova, Padua, Italy
Yale-NUS College, Singapore, Singapore
HSE University, Moscow, Russian Federation
NUCB Business School, Nagoya, Japan
University of Camerino, Camerino, Italy
Bielefeld University, Bielefeld, Germany
University of Siena - Arezzo Campus, Siena, Italy
University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom
M. Narikbayev KAZGUU University, Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan
New York University Shanghai, Shanghai, China
King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
California State University East Bay, Hayward, CA, United States
Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan
Leiden University, Leiden, Netherlands
Lingnan University, Tuen Mun, Hong Kong
Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile
Wayne State University, Detroit, MI, United States
Open Science Community Utrecht, Utrecht, Netherlands

Utrecht University
University of Groningen
University of Georgia
Delft University of Technology
University of Amsterdam
University of Thessaly
International Islamic University Malaysia
University of Pristina
Ankara Science University
Universidad Peruana de Ciencias Aplicadas
University of Sargodha
Sabanci University
New York University Abu Dhabi
De La Salle University
University of Virginia
Thammasat University
Sungkyunkwan University
Heriot Watt University
ELTE Eötvös Loránd University
University of Belgrade
Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv
Leuphana University of Luneburg
University “La Sapienza”
University of Kent
Alexandru Ioan Cuza University
Duke University
Universidad Nacional de Educacion a Distancia
Setif 2 University
University of Bristol
Sultan Qaboos University
Menoufia University
Universitas Indonesia
National Chung-Cheng University
University of Novi Sad
University of Zagreb
Monash University
HCMC University of Education
Republic of Kazakhstan
University of Maryland
Durham University
Udayana University
The University of Queensland
University of Limerick
The University of Sheffield
Carleton University
Usmanu Danfodiyo University Sokoto
Florida Gulf Coast University
University of Córdoba
University of Peshawar
University of Padova
Yale-NUS College
HSE University
NUCB Business School
University of Camerino
Bielefeld University
University of Siena - Arezzo Campus
University of Exeter
M. Narikbayev KAZGUU University
New York University Shanghai
King Saud University
California State University East Bay
Nagoya University
Leiden University
Lingnan University
Imperial College London
Universidad de Chile
Wayne State University
Open Science Community Utrecht

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