MODELING OF INJURY PROGNOSIS IN FERROALLOY PRODUCTION
Uakhitova B.T. Ramatullaeva L.I. Irgalieva I.S. Zhakiyanova R. Zhubandykova Z.H.U.
2022National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Kazakhstan
News of the National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Series of Geology and Technical Sciences
2022#6Issue 456224 - 232 pp.
Metallurgical enterprises, in particular, metal production plants are among the most dangerous from the point of view of ensuring safe working conditions. The issues of the state of occupational injuries at industrial enterprises are of paramount importance in assessing the efficiency of production activities of enterprises, the degree of technical equipment and the organization of their production. Ferroalloy production is characterized by exposure to dangerous and harmful factors, which, in turn, is associated with the occurrence of risks of occupational injuries. In order to reduce the risks of occupational injuries, it is advisable to use modern methods of accounting, analysis and forecasting of injury indicators. As practice and experience shows, statistical methods of data processing are more responsible for this. This paper shows the possibility of determining the probability of injury at the Aktobe ferroalloy plant using the Poisson probability distribution law. The study takes into account statistical materials on injuries for the period from 2012 to 2020. The obtained polynomials of the fourth degree make it possible to make a short-term (1-2 years forecast of injuries with a reliability of 93%. According to the obtained probability values for a period of 9 years, the average probability value was determined, which, according to short-term forecasting, can be taken as the forecast value of the probability of injury at the Aktobe ferroalloy plant for the next 3 years. This probability value corresponds to the number of accidents per year, equal to about 3 cases. In fact, in 2021, there were 3 accidents at the Aktobe ferroalloy Plant. Therefore, the forecast for 2021 was 100% reliable. From the above, it can be concluded that the forecast of the probability of injury using the probability distribution of Poisson can be used quite effectively as a forecast of injuries in the metallurgical complex of ferroalloy production of the Republic of Kazakhstan.
danger , ferroalloy production , injury , injury forecast , mathematical model
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South Kazakhstan University named after M. Auezova, Shymkent, Kazakhstan
Aktobe Regional University named after K. Zhubanov, Aktobe, Kazakhstan
JSC Academy of Civil Aviation, Almaty, Kazakhstan
South Kazakhstan University named after M. Auezova
Aktobe Regional University named after K. Zhubanov
JSC Academy of Civil Aviation
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