FLOW REGULATION OF THE SYRDARYA RIVER AT SHARDARA UNDER ENERGY RELEASES

РЕГУЛИРОВАНИЕ СТОКА РЕКИ СЫРДАРЬЯ В РАЙОНЕ ШАРДАРЫ В РАМКАХ ЭНЕРГЕТИЧЕСКИХ ВЫБРОСОВ
Tolesh A.B. Mamitova A.D. Karlykhanov O.K. Tazhieva T.Ch. Kalmakhanova M.S.
January-February 2026 National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Kazakhstan

News of the National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Series of Geology and Technical Sciences
2026 #2026-January-February Issue 1 345 - 361 pp.

The Syrdarya River, as a transboundary water system, faces serious challenges in coordinated water and energy management, particularly in the area of the Shardara Reservoir located on the Kazakhstan–Uzbekistan border. Winter energy-driven releases from upstream reservoirs, including the Toktogul Reservoir in Kyrgyzstan as well as hydraulic facilities in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, generate excessive discharges that exceed the downstream channel capacity. This results in increased flood risk and forced idle water releases into the Arnasai–Aydarkul depression, negatively affecting water availability in the Syrdarya River and the Small Aral Sea. The aim of this study is to develop a scientifically justified regime for the joint operation of the Shardara Reservoir, the Koksarai counterregulator, and the Arnasai spillway. The study is based on the analysis of long-term hydrological data for 1993–2023, materials from the State Water Cadastre of the Republic of Kazakhstan, and operational characteristics of hydraulic structures. Water balance analysis, integral flow curve construction, and scenario-based modeling of inflow regulation at flow reliability levels of 5–90% were applied. The results show that the cumulative volume of idle discharges into the Arnasai–Aydarkul depression exceeded 47 km³ during the study period, leading to a reduction in ecological flow to the Small Aral Sea. A dispatching schedule for the joint operation of hydraulic structures was developed, accounting for seasonal variability, ice conditions, and the storage capacity of the Koksarai counterregulator. The proposed regime allows idle discharges to be eliminated in most years and limited only to extremely high-water years with up to 10% flow reliability, thereby reducing non-productive water losses, mitigating winter flood risks, and ensuring sustainable ecological flow toward the Aral Sea.

cycling , energy discharge , regime , regulation of runoff , Syrdarya River , water content

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M. Auezov South Kazakhstan University, Symkent, Kazakhstan
Kazakh Research Institute of Water Management LLP, Taraz, Kazakhstan
M.Kh. Dulaty Taraz University, Taraz, Kazakhstan

M. Auezov South Kazakhstan University
Kazakh Research Institute of Water Management LLP
M.Kh. Dulaty Taraz University

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