A study of inflation persistence in Kazakhstan: what has changed?
Tolepbergen A.
2024Routledge
Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies
2024#17Issue 3465 - 484 pp.
The paper analyzes the persistence properties of the monthly inflation and its components in Kazakhstan using a fractionally integrated approach. The results suggest the presence of long memory behaviour in the inflation series. The general inflation, food inflation, and non-food inflation experienced a break in late 2015 when the National Bank of Kazakhstan announced a shift in the monetary policy regime. Non-food inflation is fractionally cointegrated with the nominal depreciation rate. The estimates of the Bayesian DSGE model reveal shifts in the sources of inflation persistence. The evidence for the effect of the policy change on inflation persistence and its sources is mixed. Finally, the estimation of the persistence parameter is sensitive to the choice of data frequency.
Bayesian estimation , DSGE , fractional integration , Inflation , monetary policy , persistence
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Economic Modeling Development Center, CF “NAC Analytica”, Nazarbayev University, Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan
Economic Modeling Development Center
10 лет помогаем публиковать статьи Международный издатель
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