Modeling the process of magma rising in the bowels of the Earth and its eruption to the surface

Taurbekova A. Karimsakova B. Mamyrbayev O. Toigozhinovа A. Tergeussizova A. Doshtaev K. Aidaraliyeva Z. Utepova E.
December 2025 Institute of Advanced Engineering and Science

Bulletin of Electrical Engineering and Informatics
2025 #14 Issue 6 4974 - 4987 pp.

This paper presents a numerical model for simulating magma ascent in the Earth’s interior and its eruption to the surface, aimed at improving earthquake prediction. Magmatic flows are modeled as highly viscous fluids with a low Reynolds number (Re) using simplified Navier–Stokes equations. The approach incorporates hydrodynamic instability arising from density differences between magmatic and asthenospheric layers. Initial and boundary conditions were formulated for magma outflow from a narrow crack, and a dimensionless Euler–Reynolds (ER) parameter was introduced to characterize flow behavior. Numerical experiments for different ER values revealed that at low ER, magma spreads slowly, forming stable layers, while higher ER values accelerate vertical rise, increase pressure gradients, and enhance instability. The model identifies zones of stress accumulation that may precede seismic events. An additional method—monitoring fluid levels in deep wells—showed correlation with seismic fluctuations, supporting its potential for early warning. The results confirm the reliability of the proposed approach, demonstrating good agreement with seismological data. The developed methodology can be applied to enhance early warning systems and reduce risks in seismically active regions.

Earthquake prediction , Magmatic substances , Numerical method , Seismic activity , Tectonic processes

Text of the article Перейти на текст статьи

Department of Software Engineering, Institute of Automation and Information Technology, Kazakh National Research Technical University named after K. I. Satpayev, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Department of Computer Science, Institute of Business and Digital Technologies, S. Seifullin Kazakh Agrotechnical Research University, Astana, Kazakhstan
Head of the Department, Deputy Director-General of the “Institute of Information and Computational Technologies”, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Department of Аutomation and Control, Institute of Energy and Digital Technologies, ALT University named after M.Tynyshpaev, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Department of Cybersecurity, Institute of Automation and Information Technology, Non-profit Joint Stock Company Almaty University of Power Engineering and Communications named after Gumarbek Daukeev, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Department of Information and Communication Technologies, Institute of Energy and Digital Technologies, ALT University named after M.Tynyshpaev, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Department of Information Systems, Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, Almaty Technological University, Almaty, Kazakhstan

Department of Software Engineering
Department of Computer Science
Head of the Department
Department of Аutomation and Control
Department of Cybersecurity
Department of Information and Communication Technologies
Department of Information Systems

10 лет помогаем публиковать статьи Международный издатель

Книга Публикация научной статьи Волощук 2026 Book Publication of a scientific article 2026