Case study on climate change effects and food security in Southeast Asia
Taniushkina D. Lukashevich A. Shevchenko V. Belalov I.S. Sotiriadi N. Narozhnaia V. Kovalev K. Krenke A. Lazarichev N. Bulkin A. Maximov Y.
December 2024Nature Research
Scientific Reports
2024#14Issue 1
Agriculture, a cornerstone of human civilization, faces rising challenges from climate change, resource limitations, and stagnating yields. Precise crop production forecasts are crucial for shaping trade policies, development strategies, and humanitarian initiatives. This study introduces a comprehensive machine learning framework designed to predict crop production. We leverage CMIP5 climate projections under a moderate carbon emission scenario to evaluate the future suitability of agricultural lands and incorporate climatic data, historical agricultural trends, and fertilizer usage to project yield changes. Our integrated approach forecasts significant regional variations in crop production across Southeast Asia by 2028, identifying potential cropland utilization. Specifically, the cropland area in Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Viet Nam is projected to decline by more than 10% if no action is taken, and there is potential to mitigate that loss. Moreover, rice production is projected to decline by 19% in Viet Nam and 7% in Thailand, while the Philippines may see a 5% increase compared to 2021 levels. Our findings underscore the critical impacts of climate change and human activities on agricultural productivity, offering essential insights for policy-making and fostering international cooperation.
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Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology, Moscow, Russian Federation
FRC Biotechnology, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russian Federation
Credit Risks Department, PJSC Sber, Moscow, Russian Federation
Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russian Federation
Research Center Interdata, Timertau, Kazakhstan
Institute for Artificial Intelligence, Moscow State University, Moscow, Russian Federation
International Center for Corporate Data Analysis, Astana, Kazakhstan
Theoretical Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United States
Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology
FRC Biotechnology
Credit Risks Department
Institute of Geography
Research Center Interdata
Institute for Artificial Intelligence
International Center for Corporate Data Analysis
Theoretical Division
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