Is the Chinese economic ‘miracle’ finally about to end?
Sutton D.
2025Routledge
Oxford Development Studies
2025
For over 30 years, China has defied predictions of the end of its economic ‘miracle’ which began in 1978 under the leadership of Deng Xiaoping. Such predictions first came to prominence from the early 1990s yet only recently have powerful, systemic threats emerged to that period of sustained economic growth that has lasted for almost five decades. China has benefitted from the demographic dividend of a low dependency ratio, compounded by China’s one-child policy which largely reduced the below working age dependency ratio. However, this exaggerated demographic dividend involved a heavy future cost in the form of the demographic cliff. The thesis of this analysis is that the demographic cliff, coupled with excessive debt accumulation since 2008, is rapidly exhausting China’s ability to sustain abnormal GDP growth. Furthermore, systemic features of CPC governance establish a default case for suboptimal decision-making, making mismanagement of the slowdown in Chinese growth likely to compound substantial downside risks to the Chinese economy in the foreseeable future.
China’s systemic flaws , Chinese economic miracle , demographic cliff , demographic dividend
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Department of Accounting and Finance, Bang College of Business, KIMEP University, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Department of Accounting and Finance
10 лет помогаем публиковать статьи Международный издатель
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