Impact of anti-Russian sanctions on trade and economic relations between Russia and Kazakhstan
Влияние антироссийских санкций на торговоэкономические отношения между Россией и Казахстаном
Shokamanov Y.K. Bayeva Y.V. Balgarina L.A.
2025New Economic Association
Zhournal Novoi Ekonomicheskoi Associacii /Journal of the New Economic Association
2025#2025Issue 4173 - 190 pp.
This article examines the impact of anti-Russian sanctions on trade and economic relations between Russia and Kazakhstan. The aim of this study is to quantitatively and qualitatively assess changes in trade and investment flows between countries under the sanctions pressure. The authors propose aggregated indicators of the depth of trade and economic ties, allowing an assessment of the nature of interaction between countries, considering changes in the dynamics and structure of trade flows and capital flows. Weighting coefficients were determined using two methods: arithmetic mean and principal component analysis. Based on the developed indicators, a weakening of trade and financial flows from Russia to Kazakhstan and their strengthening in the opposite direction were identified. This fact reflects a changing interaction structure and a redistribution of roles within the regional supply chains, with Kazakhstan acting as a compensating link. The commodity groups that turned out to be most in demand for Russia under sanctions are identified (mechanical and chemical products, construction materials). In addition to quantitative assessments of commodity and financial flows, the proposed indicators also include qualitative assessments of the structure of export/ import baskets of the countries. Their detailed analysis in dynamics revealed a stable trend of decreasing concentration (increasing diversity) of imported Russian goods to Kazakhstan, while Kazakhstan’s exports to Russia remain highly concentrated and less diverse. The results indicate a deepening of integration ties, while their nature and directions are simultaneously changing. The proposed aggregate indicators can be used to monitor the dynamics of integration processes and assess the resilience of economic relations between countries in the face of external economic shocks.
aggregate indicators , direct investment , export and import structure , integration processes in the EAEU , trade and economic relations between Russia and Kazakhstan , аnti-Russian sanctions
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Almaty University of Humanities and Economics, Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan Branch of Lomonosov Moscow State University, Kazakhstan
Academy of Public Administration under the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Kazakhstan
Almaty University of Humanities and Economics
Kazakhstan Branch of Lomonosov Moscow State University
Academy of Public Administration under the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan
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