Statistical analysis of object congestion in the geostationary region

Serebryanskiy A. Akniyazov C. Demchenko B. Komarov A. Omarov C. Reva I. Krugov M. Voropaev V.
May 2021 Elsevier Ltd

Acta Astronautica
2021 #182 424 - 431 pp.

The results of the statistical analysis of the number of near-miss events (NME) in the distance range from 1 km up to 200 km between objects on the geostationary orbits (GSO) for the period from 2011 to 2020, obtained from approximations based on catalogs of orbital elements, are presented. It was shown that the overall increase in the number of NMEs resulting from the filling of geostationary orbits due to new launches and the detection of new space debris (SD) fragments, is characterized by an asymmetry in the distribution of the average daily number of events in longitude - the number of average daily NMEs at 75^∘E is higher than at longitude 255^∘E. An analysis of the dependence of the average daily number of NMEs on the minimum distance between objects as a function of the catalog epoch showed that the average daily number of NMEs at the distances of up to 1 km increased from 0.22 events per day in 2011 to 0.35 events per day in 2020. If we take a distance of 20 m as a collision measure, then according to 2020, the probability of such an event in the GSO is one event in 8 years. The analysis showed that if the current dynamics of population growth at the GSO continues in the future, then by 2030 there will be a situation in which a collision may occur every 5 years, and by 2040 every 3 years.

Debris forecasting , Geosynchronous orbit , Orbital debris

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Fesenkov Astrophysical Institute, Observatory 23, Almaty, 050020, Kazakhstan
Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Al-Farabi Avenue 71, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics, Miusskaya sq., 4, Moscow, 125047, Russian Federation

Fesenkov Astrophysical Institute
Al-Farabi Kazakh National University
Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics

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