Impact of changes in the wind regime on the Caspian sea level fluctuation and its relationship with SOI and NAO

Safarov E. Bayramov E. Safarov S. Neafie J. Hedjazi A.
December 2025 Nature Research

Scientific Reports
2025 #15 Issue 1

This study investigates changes in the wind regime over the Caspian region and their impact on sea level fluctuations, utilizing MERRA-2 reanalysis data spanning the period 1980–2023. The analysis revealed no statistically significant variation in average wind speed between the phase of sea level decline (2005–2022) and the preceding phase of sea level rise (1984–2004). However, more detailed examination of specific wind parameters indicated notable shifts: the speed of resultant winds increased by 10.3%, accompanied by a 9.5° change in predominant wind direction, as derived from eastward and northward wind vector components. Furthermore, comparison of resultant wind characteristics with key climatic indices—specifically the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)—demonstrated a moderate relationship between wind regime variability and sea level dynamics, including interannual fluctuations. These findings underscore that sea level changes in the Caspian Sea are closely linked to climate variability, mediated in part through alterations in regional wind patterns.

Caspian sea , Climate indices , River runoff , Sea level , Wind direction , Wind speed

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Ministry of Science and Education of the Republic of Azerbaijan, Institute of Geography named after acad. H. Aliyev, Azerbaijan 115, H.Javid ave, Baku, AZ1070, Azerbaijan
School of Mining and Geosciences, Nazarbayev University, 53 Kabanbay Batyr Avenue, Block 6, Astana, 010000, Kazakhstan
Institute of Smart Systems and Artificial Intelligence (ISSAI), Nazarbayev University, 53 Kabanbay Batyr Avenue, Block C4, Astana, 010000, Kazakhstan
School of Sciences and Humanities, Nazarbayev University, 53 Kabanbay Batyr Avenue, Block 8, Astana, 010000, Kazakhstan
Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, 66, Blvd Carl Vogt, Geneva, 1205, Switzerland

Ministry of Science and Education of the Republic of Azerbaijan
School of Mining and Geosciences
Institute of Smart Systems and Artificial Intelligence (ISSAI)
School of Sciences and Humanities
Institute for Environmental Sciences

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