Modelling migratory waterfowl stopover habitat while accounting for ephemeral environmental conditions

Rogova N. Iliev M. Petkov N. Rozenfeld S. Timoshenko A. Vangeluwe D. Zuban I.A. Pidgeon A.M. Radeloff V.C.
November 2025 John Wiley and Sons Inc

Journal of Applied Ecology
2025 #62 Issue 11 2941 - 2953 pp.

Migratory species depend on ephemeral environmental conditions; thus, species distribution modelling (SDM) must incorporate phenological changes along migratory routes. Our overarching goal was to model habitats for three waterfowl species migrating through Eurasian grasslands (red-breasted goose [Branta ruficollis], taiga bean goose [Anser fabalis fabalis] and Bewicks swan [Cygnus columbianus bewickii]) while accounting for ephemeral environmental conditions. Our objectives were (a) to develop a workflow of mapping ephemeral environmental conditions, (b) model habitats for the three species and (c) evaluate the protection status of habitats in natural and agricultural landscapes. We expected water availability, particularly ephemeral spring waterbodies, to strongly influence these species distributions. We utilized MODIS data for phenological synchronization of Landsat images to create species- and season-specific metrics and land cover maps. We used Landsat-derived environmental variables, elevation and bird GPS locations in Maxent SDM. We compared locations of modelled habitats, protected areas and Ramsar sites. Our land cover maps had an overall accuracy of 0.92–0.95 and captured ephemeral water extent during these species migrations. All models had AUC scores of 0.89–0.94; distance to water, land cover and elevation were the most important variables. Modelled habitats were distributed unevenly and occurred in both natural and agricultural landscapes; 40%–76% fell within croplands. Although most croplands provide a rich food supply, their value as waterfowl habitat critically depended on water availability. Approximately 22% of potential habitat in the natural landscape, but only 3% in croplands, had some level of protection. Synthesis and applications. We demonstrated the potential of phenological synchronization to estimate fine-scale ephemeral environmental conditions crucial for migratory species. Modelled habitats revealed key stopover sites in both natural and agricultural landscapes. The maps showed gaps in the protected area network of Eurasian grasslands, especially in agriculture. Our workflow could be easily adapted for other species and is broadly relevant for conservation.

Bewicks swan , ephemeral habitat , Landsat , Maxent , MODIS , phenology , red-breasted goose , taiga bean goose

Text of the article Перейти на текст статьи

SILVIS Lab, Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, United States
Bulgarian Society for the Protection of Birds, Sofia, Bulgaria
National Museum of Natural History, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia, Bulgaria
Severtsov Institute of Ecology and Evolution, Moscow, Russian Federation
Association for the Conservation of Biodiversity of Kazakhstan, Astana, Kazakhstan
Institute of Natural Sciences, Brussels, Belgium
M. Kozybayev North Kazakhstan University, Petropavlovsk, Kazakhstan

SILVIS Lab
Bulgarian Society for the Protection of Birds
National Museum of Natural History
Severtsov Institute of Ecology and Evolution
Association for the Conservation of Biodiversity of Kazakhstan
Institute of Natural Sciences
M. Kozybayev North Kazakhstan University

10 лет помогаем публиковать статьи Международный издатель

Книга Публикация научной статьи Волощук 2026 Book Publication of a scientific article 2026