Mapping Plague Risk Using Super Species Distribution Models and Forecasts for Rodents in the Zhambyl Region, Kazakhstan
Rametov N.M. Steiner M. Bizhanova N.A. Abdel Z.Z. Yessimseit D.T. Abdeliyev B.Z. Mussagalieva R.S.
November 2023John Wiley and Sons Inc
GeoHealth
2023#7Issue 11
One of the most extensive natural plague centers, or foci, is located in Central Asia, in particular, the Zhambyl region in Southern Kazakhstan. Here, we conducted plague surveillance from 2000 to 2020 in the Zhambyl region in Kazakhstan and confirmed 3,072 cases of infected wild animals. We used Species Distribution Modeling by employing MaxEnt, and identified that the natural plague foci are primarily located in the Moiynqum, Betpaqdala, and Tauqum Deserts. The Zhambyl regions central part, including the Moiynqum and Sarysu districts, has a high potential risk of plague outbreak for the rural towns and villages. Since the phenomenon of climate change has been identified as a determinant that affects the rodent populations, thereby elevating the likelihood of an outbreak of plague, we investigated the potential dissemination routes of the disease under the changing climate conditions, thus creating Species Distribution Forecasts for the rodent species in southern part of Kazakhstan for the year 2100. By 2100, in case of increasing temperatures, the range of host species is likely to expand, leading to a higher risk of plague outbreaks. The highest risk of disease transmission can be expected at the outer limits of the modeled total distribution range, where infection rates are high, but antibody presence is low, making many species susceptible to the pathogen. To mitigate the risk of a potential plague outbreak, it is necessary to implement appropriate sanitary-epidemiological measures and climate mitigation policies.
climate change , MaxEnt , plague focus , rodents , spatial analysis , species distribution model
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National Scientific Center for Particularly Dangerous Infections named after M. Aikimbaev, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Institute of Ionosphere, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Department of Geospatial Engineering, Satpaev Kazakh National Research Technical University, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Department of Animal Science, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, Netherlands
Laboratory of Theriology, Institute of Zoology, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Department of Biodiversity and Bioresources, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Wildlife Without Borders Public Fund, Almaty, Kazakhstan
National Scientific Center for Particularly Dangerous Infections named after M. Aikimbaev
Institute of Ionosphere
Department of Geospatial Engineering
Department of Animal Science
Laboratory of Theriology
Department of Biodiversity and Bioresources
Wildlife Without Borders Public Fund
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