Factors associated with viral load non-suppression among adults with HIV in Sughd region, Tajikistan: a retrospective cohort study

Qurbonov E. Nabirova D. Kubatova A. Yusufi S. Maes E.F. Horth R.
December 2025 BioMed Central Ltd

BMC Infectious Diseases
2025 #25 Issue 1

Background: Viral load suppression among people living with HIV is a key strategy for reducing HIV transmission. A global target for HIV elimination aims to have 95% of people living with HIV diagnosed, 95% of people diagnosed on antiretroviral therapy (ART), and 95% viral load suppression for those on ART. We aimed to assess viral load non-suppression rates and associated factors among people living with HIV on ART in the Sughd region of Tajikistan. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of adults (≥ 18 years old) who were newly diagnosed with HIV in 2013–2022 and had received ART for ≥ 6 months in the Sughd Region. Data were collected from the national electronic HIV case surveillance system and cross-referenced with paper medical and laboratory records. We conducted multivariable Quasi-Poisson regression to identify factors associated with viral load non-suppression (defined as ≥ 1000 copies/mL on their latest viral load test). Results: Among the 1,871 people newly diagnosed with HIV who received ART for ≥ 6 months from 2013 to 2022, 11% were not virally suppressed. Over half (57%) were male, 38% were migrants, 73% were married, and the median age was 31 years (range 18–74). One-third (32%) had advanced HIV disease at diagnosis, 58% had been on ART for < 5 years, 94% were on a dolutegravir-containing regimen (DTG), and 9% died. Viral load non-suppression was 23% among people with stage IV at diagnosis and 43% among those not on DTG. Higher risk of viral load non-suppression was observed among male migrants and male nonmigrants compared to female nonmigrants (adjusted relative risk [aRR] and 95% confidence interval = 1.61 [1.13–2.31] and aRR = 1.48 [1.03–2.14], respectively), those who never-married vs. married (aRR = 1.56 [1.05–2.25]), those on ART for < 5 years vs. longer (aRR = 1.56 [1.05–2.29]), those initiating ART in 2013–2018 compared to 2019–2020 (aRR = 1.92 [1.28–2.88]), and those not on DTG (aRR = 3.86 [2.63–5.69]). Conclusions: Viral load suppression among people living with HIV in the Sughd Region remains below the global 95% target. Viral load suppression may improve with increased treatment support for people with late diagnosis or those newly initiating ART, with a special focus on men and migrants.

Adults , HIV infections , Migrants , Retrospective studies , Tajikistan , Viral load

Text of the article Перейти на текст статьи

Department of Epidemiology, Sughd Regional Center for Prevention and Control of HIV, Khujand, Tajikistan
Central Asia Field Epidemiology Training Program, Asfendiyarov Kazakh National Medical University, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Division of Global Health Protection in Central Asia, United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Almaty, Kazakhstan
National Institute of Public Health, Ministry of Health of the Kyrgyz Republic, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan
Science Department, Ministry of Health and Social Protection of the Population of the Republic of Tajikistan, Dushanbe, Tajikistan
Department of Global Health, Emory Rollins School of Public Health, Atlanta, GA, United States

Department of Epidemiology
Central Asia Field Epidemiology Training Program
Division of Global Health Protection in Central Asia
National Institute of Public Health
Science Department
Department of Global Health

10 лет помогаем публиковать статьи Международный издатель

Книга Публикация научной статьи Волощук 2026 Book Publication of a scientific article 2026