The Circulation of Yersinia pestis in Central Eurasia before and during the First Plague Pandemic (Second to Eighth Century CE): Palaeogenetic and Historical Evidence and Sociopolitical, Ecological, and Climatic Factors
Preiser-Kapeller J. McGrath W.A. Pfister R. Gong S. Keller M. Newfield T.P. Schamiloglu U. Büntgen U. Spyrou M.A. Averbuch B. Chen F. Schindel N. Xie H. Xoplaki E.
August 2025Springer
Human Ecology
2025#53Issue 4703 - 721 pp.
Modern Yersinia pestis genomes show the greatest diversity of the plague pathogen in Central Eurasia. This region is now widely linked to the origins of the Y. pestis lineages responsible for two historic plague pandemics: one starting with the so-called “Justinianic Plague” of the mid-sixth century and the other with the “Black Death” of the mid-fourteenth century. These pandemics have mostly been studied in the Mediterranean region and Europe. Although the beginning of the latter is clearly defined both geographically and temporally, the early spread of the former has received less attention, despite being the focus of several competing hypotheses. Here, we build on recent discoveries of Y. pestis in late antique human remains from Central Eurasia and Europe. These findings identified an early victim of the Y. pestis lineage in Central Eurasia, centuries before it appeared in Europe during the Justinianic Plague. We contextualize these analyses with (I) what we can reconstruct from archaeological, written, and paleoclimate evidence about the demographic, economic, environmental, and mobility (human and animal) histories of the region in the earliest centuries CE, and (II) written evidence for epidemic disease from the region and neighboring areas, which may be linked to the spread of the plague before, during, and after the Justinianic Plague. Specifically, we examine sources to establish and evaluate hypotheses about how, why, and if the plague spread from Central Eurasia, ultimately causing the Justinianic Plague and the “First Plague Pandemic,” and how significantly Eurasian populations were impacted over these centuries. Despite extensive source analysis, limited information, especially palaeogenomic data, prevents us from definitively pinpointing the immediate origin of the First Plague Pandemic. Still, most evidence strongly suggests that the Y. pestis lineage originated from Central Eurasia.
Central Eurasia , First millennium CE , First pandemic , Historical ecology , Palaeoclimatology , Palaeogenetics , Plague , Yersinia pestis
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Institute for Medieval Research/Department of Byzantine Research, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Vienna, Austria
Department of Religious Studies, New York University, New York, NY, United States
Research Institute for the History of Afroeurasian Life Sciences, Basel, Switzerland
Department of Geography, Central China Normal University, Wuhan, China
Institute of Genomics, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
Department for Environmental Sciences, University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
Department of History and Department of Biology, Georgetown University, Washington, DC, United States
School of Sciences and Humanities, Nazarbayev University, Astana, Kazakhstan
Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
Department of Geosciences, Institute for Archaeological Sciences, Eberhard Karls University of Tübingen, Tübingen, Germany
Department of History, College of Staten Island, New York, NY, United States
Group of Alpine Paleoecology and Human Adaptation (ALPHA), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Austrian Archaeological Institute, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Vienna, Austria
Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Italy, CMCC Foundation, Lecce, Italy
Institute for Medieval Research/Department of Byzantine Research
Department of Religious Studies
Research Institute for the History of Afroeurasian Life Sciences
Department of Geography
Institute of Genomics
Department for Environmental Sciences
Department of History and Department of Biology
School of Sciences and Humanities
Department of Geography
Department of Geosciences
Department of History
Group of Alpine Paleoecology and Human Adaptation (ALPHA)
Austrian Archaeological Institute
Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change
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