epidemiological situation on Plague in 2020. Forecast of episootic Activity of natural Plague Foci in the Russian Federation and Other CIs Countries for 2021
эпидемиологичеСКая СиТуация по чуме в 2020 г. прогноЗ эпиЗооТичеСКой аКТивноСТи природнЫх очагов чумЫ роССийСКой федерации и других СТран Снг на 2021 г.
Popov N.V. Eroshenko G.A. Karnaukhov I.G. Kuznetsov A.A. Matrosov A.N. Ivanova A.V. Oglodin E.G. Nikiforov K.A. Korzun V.M. Verzhutsky D.B. Chipanin E.V. Ayazbaev T.Z. Dzhaparova A.K. Berdiev S.K. Lopatin A.A. Dubyansky V.M. Shcherbakova S.A. Balakhonov S.V. Kulichenko A.N. Kutyrev V.V.
2021Russian Research Anti-Plague Institute
Problemy Osobo Opasnykh Infektsii
2021Issue 152 - 62 pp.
The aim of the work was to substantiate the forecast of the epidemiological and epizootiological situation in natural foci of plague in the Russian Federation, countries of the near and far abroad for the year of 2021. Characteristics of the distribution of Yersinia pestis strains of the main subspecies (subspecies pestis) of medieval and antique biovars, Caucasian (ssp. caucasica) and central Asian (ssp. central asiatica) subspecies by 45 natural foci of the CIS countries are presented in the paper. The persistence of a multidirectional trend in the dynamics of epizootic activity of natural foci of the CIS countries with the circulation of Y. pestis pestis strains of the medieval biovar of the 2.MED1 phylogenetic branch and the antique biovar of the 0.ANT5, 4.ANT phylogenetic branches in the current decade has been outlined. For the Russian Federation, the development of epizootics is predicted in the Gorno-Altai highland and Tuva mountain natural foci caused by the circulation of Y. pestis pestis strains of the antique biovar 4.ANT and Y. pestis of the Altai biovar of the Central Asian subspecies 0.PE4a in 2021. For the Republic of Kazakhstan, there is a high probability of preserving epizootic activity in the North Aral, Aral-Karakum, Balkhash, Mojynkum, Taukum desert and Ili intermountain natural foci with the circulation of Y. pestis pestis strains of the medieval biovar of the phylogenetic branch 2.MED1. For the Kyrgyz Republic, the forecast for the development of plague epizootics caused by Y. pestis pestis strains of the antique biovar 0.ANT5 phylogenetic branch in the Sarydzhaz and Upper Naryn high-mountain natural foci has been substantiated. A high epidemic risk of epizootic manifestations caused by highly virulent strains of Y. pestis pestis of antique biovars 0.ANT5, 4.ANT and medieval biovar 2.MED1 for the entire territory of the CIS countries is noted. The relevance of implementing forecasts of the epidemiological situation into practice, taking into account the molecular-genetic and epidemiological characteristics of Y. pestis strains circulating in areas of expected epizootic manifestations of plague, is highlighted.
Epizootic activity , Forecast , Morbidity , Natural foci of plague , Preventive measures , Strains
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Russian Research Anti-Plague Institute “Microbe”., 46, Universitetskaya St., Saratov, 410005, Russian Federation
Plague Control Center., 4, Musorgskogo St., Moscow, 127490, Russian Federation
Irkutsk Research Anti-Plague Institute of Siberia and Far East., 78 Trilissera St., Irkutsk, 664047, Russian Federation
Stavropol Research Anti-Plague Institute, 13-15, Sovetskaya St., Stavropol, 355035, Russian Federation
Masgut Aikimbaev National Scientific Center for Especially Dangerous Infections, The Ministry of Healthcare of the Republic of Kazakhstan, 14, Zhahanger St, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Republican Center for Quarantine and Particularly Dangerous Infections, The Ministry of Health of the Kyrgyz Republic., 92, Skryabina St., Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan
Russian Research Anti-Plague Institute “Microbe”.
Plague Control Center.
Irkutsk Research Anti-Plague Institute of Siberia and Far East.
Stavropol Research Anti-Plague Institute
Masgut Aikimbaev National Scientific Center for Especially Dangerous Infections
Republican Center for Quarantine and Particularly Dangerous Infections
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