Development of a regional probabilistic seismic hazard model for Central Asia
Poggi V. Parolai S. Silacheva N. Ischuk A. Abdrakhmatov K. Kobuliev Z. Ismailov V. Ibragimov R. Karaev J. Ceresa P. Santulin M. Bazzurro P.
21 February 2025Copernicus Publications
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
2025#25Issue 2817 - 842 pp.
Central Asia is an area characterized by complex tectonic and active deformation, largely due to the relative convergent motion between India-Arabia and Eurasia. The resulting compressional tectonic regime is responsible for the development of significant seismic activity, which, along with other natural hazards such as mass movements and river flooding, contributes to increased risk to local populations. Although several studies have been conducted on individual perils at the local and national levels, the last published regional model for the whole of Central Asia, developed under the EMCA (Earthquake Model Central Asia) project, is almost 10 years old. With the goal of developing a new comprehensive multi-risk model that is uniform and consistent across the five Central Asian countries of Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, the European Union, in collaboration with the World Bank and the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), funded the regional programme SFRARR (Strengthening Financial Resilience and Accelerating Risk Reduction in Central Asia). The activity was led by a consortium of scientists from international research institutions, from both the public and the private sectors, with contributions from experts of the local scientific community. This study presents the main results of a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) conducted as part of the SFRARR programme to develop the new risk model for Central Asia. The proposed PSHA model was developed using state-of-the-art methods and calibrated based on the most up-to-date information available for the region, including a novel homogenized earthquake catalogue compiled from global and local sources and a database of active faults with associated slip rate information.
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National Institute of Oceanography and Applied Geophysics (OGS), Udine, Italy
Department of Mathematics, Informatics and Geosciences, University of Trieste, Trieste, Italy
Institute of Seismology, Ministry of Emergency Situations (MoES) of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Institute of Geology, Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, National Academy of Sciences of Tajikistan, Dushanbe, Tajikistan
Institute of Seismology, National Academy of Sciences of the Kyrgyz Republic, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan
Institute of Water Problems, Hydropower and Ecology (IWPHE), Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Tajikistan, Dushanbe, Tajikistan
Institute of Seismology of the Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Uzbekistan, Tashkent, Uzbekistan
United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Representative Office in Turkmenistan, Ashgabat, Turkmenistan
Risk, Engineering + Development (RED), Pavia, Italy
University School for Advanced Studies (IUSS), Pavia, Italy
National Institute of Oceanography and Applied Geophysics (OGS)
Department of Mathematics
Institute of Seismology
Institute of Geology
Institute of Seismology
Institute of Water Problems
Institute of Seismology of the Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Uzbekistan
United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Representative Office in Turkmenistan
Risk
University School for Advanced Studies (IUSS)
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