Foresight Management of National Oil and Gas Industry Development

Petrenko Y. Denisov I. Metsik O.
January-2 2022 MDPI

Energies
2022 #15 Issue 2

Changes in modern technologies have led to a decrease in the role of oil and threaten the well-being of oil-exporting countries. The oil and gas industry is the leading one in the economy of Kazakhstan, and the future of the country depends on its development. The purpose of the presented research is to determine the long-term image of the future oil and gas industry and develop a strategy for the government and national companies in different spheres for actions in conditions of increasing uncertainty. The article presents the materials of an expert survey using the Delphi method (211 industry experts) and a group discussion during a foresight session (75 participants), in which the authors provided methodological support and practical participation. The top nine development trends have been identified, the majority of experts (about 90%) see the future of the industry as the development of unmanned production based on digital management and an increase in environmental requirements (85%). The author’s methodology is based on a pragmatic approach to conducting an industry technological foresight in the medium term. The visionary image of the development of the oil and gas industry is built on the basis of the possibilities of technological breakthroughs. The refined image was formed as a response to the challenges of the external environment on the principle of the “Most Advanced, Yet Acceptable”. The main characteristic of the future of the oil and gas industry in Kazakhstan is a deserted production, where the production process is fully automated and robotic. Risks of oil and gas industry development are critical for the entire economy of Kazakhstan, so plans based on industry foresight projections to prevent them are a national priority.

Development , Evolutionary analysis , Foresight , Kazakhstan , Management , Management models , Oil and gas industry , Transformation of contemporary management concepts

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Academic Department of Management Theory and Business Technologies, Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, Stremyanny Lane 36, Moscow, 117997, Russian Federation
Academic Department of Public Administration and Personnel Policy, Moscow Metropolitan Governance Yury Luzhkov University, St. Sretenka 28, Moscow, 107045, Russian Federation
Lean Technology Center SIMKON, Zhambyl St. 103A, Office 101, Karaganda, 100000, Kazakhstan

Academic Department of Management Theory and Business Technologies
Academic Department of Public Administration and Personnel Policy
Lean Technology Center SIMKON

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