PREDICTION MODEL OF PUBLIC HOUSES’ HEATING SYSTEMS: A COMPARISON OF SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINE METHOD AND RANDOM FOREST METHOD

MODEL PROGNOZOWANIA SYSTEMÓW GRZEWCZYCH BUDYNKÓW UŻYTECZNOŚCI PUBLICZNEJ: PORÓWNANIE METODY SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINE I RANDOM FOREST
Perekrest A. Chenchevoi V. Chencheva O. Kovalenko A. Kushch-Zhyrko M. Kalizhanova A. Amirgaliyev Y.
2022 Politechnika Lubelska

Informatyka, Automatyka, Pomiary w Gospodarce i Ochronie Srodowiska
2022 #12 Issue 3 34 - 39 pp.

Data analysis and predicting play an important role in managing heat-supplying systems. Applying the models of predicting the systems’ parameters is possible for qualitative management, accepting appropriate decisions relating control that will be aimed at increasing energy efficiency and decreasing the amount of the consumed power source, diagnosing and defining non-typical processes in the functioning of the systems. The article deals with comparing two methods of ma-chine learning: random forest (RF) and support vector machine (SVM) for predicting the temperature of the heat-carrying agent in the heating system based on the data of electronic weather-dependent controller. The authors use the following parameters to compare the models: accuracy, source cost and the opportunity to interpret the results and non-obvious interrelations. The time spent for defining the optimal hyperparameters and conducting the SVM model training is deter-mined to exceed significantly the data of the RF parameter despite the close meanings of the root mean square error (RMSE). The change from 15-min data to once-a-minute ones is done to improve the RF model accuracy. RMSE of the RF model on the test data equals 0.41°С. The article studies the importance of the contribution of variables to the prediction accuracy.

building heat supply , random forest , support vector machine

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Kremenchuk Mykhailo Ostrohradskyi National University, Department of Computer Engineering and Electronics, Kremenchuk, Ukraine
Kremenchuk Mykhailo Ostrohradskyi National University, Department of Systems of Automatic Control and Electric Drive, Kremenchuk, Ukraine
Cherkasy State Technological University, Cherkasy, Ukraine
University of Power Engineering and Telecommunications, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Institute of Information and Computational Technologies MES CS RK, Almaty, Kazakhstan

Kremenchuk Mykhailo Ostrohradskyi National University
Kremenchuk Mykhailo Ostrohradskyi National University
Cherkasy State Technological University
University of Power Engineering and Telecommunications
Institute of Information and Computational Technologies MES CS RK

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