Analysing Seasonal Hydroclimatic Variability to Support Managed Aquifer Recharge Planning in Kazakhstan

Ongdas N. Sallwey J. Yapiyev V. Mukanov Y. Stefan C.
2026 Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH

Earth Systems and Environment
2026

Kazakhstan has been experiencing water scarcity due to high inter- and intra-annual precipitation and streamflow variability, which adversely impacts the country’s agricultural production and economy. In order to design suitable adaptation measures, a detailed analysis of characteristics and trends in climate data is essential. This study analyses recent climate data (1981–2019) and global gridded datasets on water balance components for two Kazakh regions. The data was analysed using Mann–Kendall trend test, extreme precipitation indexes, analysis of wet/dry spells and droughts. The results indicate that while the average annual precipitation amounts were not significantly different between the regions, there was a distinct intra-annual variability. Significant trends in hydroclimatic variables appear in the south during winter and spring, and in the north mainly in spring. No significant trends are observed for extreme precipitation. Evapotranspiration controls the water balance in both regions. Potential water available for groundwater recharge is higher in the north. Snowpack in the south is highly variable and shows a significant decreasing trend. Based on the results, managed aquifer recharge (MAR) is proposed as a potential solution to enhance water availability throughout the year, leveraging the highly variable precipitation and streamflow patterns. In both cases, the irregularly available water resources, such as spring snowmelt and heavy summer rains, can be stored through MAR schemes, thereby providing reliable support to water supply systems. This approach can serve as a countermeasure to the recurrent dry spells and droughts in the region, as well as to the climate-induced alterations of the local water balance.

Climate change , Drought , Flood , Groundwater recharge , Kazakhstan , Managed aquifer recharge , Water management , Water scarcity

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Institute of Groundwater Management, Technische Universität Dresden, Dresden, 01069, Germany
National Laboratory Astana, Nazarbayev University, 53 Kabanbay Batyr Avenue, Astana, 010000, Kazakhstan
International Science Complex Astana, Astana, 010000, Kazakhstan
L.N. Gumilyov, Eurasian National University, Astana, 010000, Kazakhstan

Institute of Groundwater Management
National Laboratory Astana
International Science Complex Astana
L.N. Gumilyov

10 лет помогаем публиковать статьи Международный издатель

Книга Публикация научной статьи Волощук 2026 Book Publication of a scientific article 2026