ASSESSMENT OF POSSIBLE SEISMIC HAZARD AND RISK USING THE EXAMPLE OF ALMATY
Nigmetov G. Savinov A. Nigmetov T. Gabbasov S.
June 2025Gnedenko Forum
Reliability: Theory and Applications
2025#20Issue 2382 - 393 pp.
In January 2024, residents of Almaty felt the seismic impact of an earthquake that occurred on the border of China and Kyrgyzstan. The city was not prepared for such an event. How could the city residents prepare for this devastating earthquake? In order to properly prepare the population for a destructive earthquake, it is necessary to have a system for assessing the individual seismic risk of the city, which uses data for risk assessment: on predicted possible earthquake sources (PES) dangerous for the city for the next 10 years, on the seismic resistance of buildings and the citys population. Based on these data, the possible individual risk for the city population is assessed. In order to assess the individual risk as accurately as possible, in addition to data on the PES and seismic resistance of buildings, data on the macroseismic field from the PES forecast are needed. At present, there are all the necessary scientific and technical capabilities for creating monitoring systems for seismic protection of cities.
building seismic resistance , Dynamic-geophysical method , individual seismic risk , possible earthquake source , seismic hazard
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All-Russian Research Institute for Civil Defense and Emergencies, 7, Davidkovskaja Street, Moscow, 121352, Russian Federation
Kazakh Agrotechnical Research University named after Saken Seifullin, Zhenis, avenue 62, Astana, 010011, Kazakhstan
All-Russian Research Institute for Civil Defense and Emergencies
Kazakh Agrotechnical Research University named after Saken Seifullin
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