An Advanced Ensemble Machine Learning Framework for Estimating Long-Term Average Discharge at Hydrological Stations Using Global Metadata
Neftissov A. Biloshchytskyi A. Kazambayev I. Dolhopolov S. Honcharenko T.
July 2025Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI)
Water (Switzerland)
2025#17Issue 14
Accurate estimation of long-term average (LTA) discharge is fundamental for water resource assessment, infrastructure planning, and hydrological modeling, yet it remains a significant challenge, particularly in data-scarce or ungauged basins. This study introduces an advanced machine learning framework to estimate long-term average discharge using globally available hydrological station metadata from the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC). The methodology involved comprehensive data preprocessing, extensive feature engineering, log-transformation of the target variable, and the development of multiple predictive models, including a custom deep neural network with specialized pathways and gradient boosting machines (XGBoost, LightGBM, CatBoost). Hyperparameters were optimized using Bayesian techniques, and a weighted Meta Ensemble model, which combines predictions from the best individual models, was implemented. Performance was rigorously evaluated using R2, RMSE, and MAE on an independent test set. The Meta Ensemble model demonstrated superior performance, achieving a Coefficient of Determination (R2) of 0.954 on the test data, significantly surpassing baseline and individual advanced models. Model interpretability analysis using SHAP (Shapley Additive explanations) confirmed that catchment area and geographical attributes are the most dominant predictors. The resulting model provides a robust, accurate, and scalable data-driven solution for estimating long-term average discharge, enhancing water resource assessment capabilities and offering a powerful tool for large-scale hydrological analysis.
discharge prediction , ensemble learning , hydraulic structures , hydrological modeling , machine learning , water resources assessment
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Research and Innovation Center “Industry 4.0”, Astana IT University, Astana, 010000, Kazakhstan
University Administration, Astana IT University, Astana, 010000, Kazakhstan
Department of Information Technology, Kyiv National University of Construction and Architecture, Kyiv, 03680, Ukraine
Research and Innovation Center “Industry 4.0”
University Administration
Department of Information Technology
10 лет помогаем публиковать статьи Международный издатель
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