ASSESSING THE RISKS OF A FREIGHT FORWARDER ENTERING THE TRANSPORT MARKET WITH STOCHASTIC DEMAND
Naumov V. Nugymanova G. Taran I. Litvinova Y.
2025University of Zilina
Communications - Scientific Letters of the University of Zilina
2025#27Issue 2E11 - E20 pp.
This research investigates freight forwarders operational risks when entering a new transport market characterized by stochastic demand. A simulation model was developed to represent the service request flow potentially experienced by a freight forwarder in a new market. The proposed model incorporates key operational parameters such as average request interval, service tariff, and request processing time. Based on the simulation results, a regression model was developed to predict the market entry risk. The obtained model demonstrates that the risk increases with longer average request intervals between service requests and decreases with higher service tariffs. The findings provide insights for freight forwarders seeking to enter new markets. The simulation-based approach offers a practical tool for assessing operational risks and informing strategic decisions related to market entry and service pricing.
freight forwarding , regression analysis , risk assessment , simulation model , transportation market
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Transportation Systems Department, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Cracow University of Technology, Cracow, Poland
Mukhametzhan Tynyshbaev ALT University, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Department of Roads and Bridges, Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Architecture, Rzeszow University of Technology, Rzeszow, Poland
Transport Management Department, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Dnipro University of Technology, Dnipro, Ukraine
Transportation Systems Department
Mukhametzhan Tynyshbaev ALT University
Department of Roads and Bridges
Transport Management Department
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