Probabilistic analysis application to substantiate support parameters in seismically active and fractured rock masses
Mussin A. Imashev A. Matayev A. Khussan B. Abdrashev R.
2025Dnipro University of Technology
Mining of Mineral Deposits
2025#19Issue 366 - 75 pp.
Purpose. The research aims to substantiate support parameters for underground mine workings in the conditions of fractured and seismically active masses using probabilistic stability analysis. Methods. The research is based on the integration of field engineering-geological observations, geological-structural analysis, numerical modeling and probabilistic stability assessment methods. Based on the geotechnical description of oriented cores, the mass fracturing parameters (RQD, Jn, Jr, Ja) were determined, stereographic analysis using Dips software was performed and the mass quality index Q′ was calculated. Probabilistic stability analysis of wedges was conducted in the Unwedge software package, taking into account dynamic effects and seismicity coefficients up to 0.4. Scenarios without support, with roof-bolt and combined supports are discussed. Findings. It has been found that at unfavorable mine working orientation and high seismic loads, the factor of safety (FS) does not reach the design values (FS ≥ 1.5) without the use of support, which necessitates the use of combined support schemes. Originality. The novelty is in the complex application of probabilistic stability analysis taking into account real geometric and mechanical characteristics of fracturing, seismic impact and spatial anisotropy of the mass. For the first time, field data, Q′ index and Unwedge modeling have been combined for specific engineering-geological conditions to substantiate the parameters of a combined support adapted to seismically active fractured masses. Practical implications. The developed methodology can be adapted to various mining-technical conditions and helps to increase the reliability of design solutions for construction and operation of underground structures in difficult geological and seismically active areas.
fracturing , numerical modeling , probabilistic analysis , seismic activity , support , underground mine workings
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Abylkas Saginov Karaganda Technical University, Karaganda, Kazakhstan
Abylkas Saginov Karaganda Technical University
10 лет помогаем публиковать статьи Международный издатель
Книга Публикация научной статьи Волощук 2026 Book Publication of a scientific article 2026