A decade of Eurasian integration: An ex-post non-parametric assessment of the Eurasian economic union
Montalbano P. Cerqua A. Temerbulatova Z.
August 2024Elsevier B.V.
International Economics
2024#178
This paper provides a sound ex-post evaluation of the impact of the Eurasian integration on member countries’ bilateral trade after a decade of implementation. We overcome the main limitations of current empirical analyses on the effects of trade agreements, namely the aggregation of tariff and non-tariff barriers and the likely self-selection bias, by applying a non-parametric method specifically designed to fully exploit time-series cross-sectional data. We thus compare the trade flows of the member countries in the Eurasian agreement with the exporter-importer pairs located in the Eurasian continent, which are most similar in terms of pre-treatment trends and features. Our results confirm the previous literature about the lack of a significant impact of the Eurasian customs union but find more positive net effects of the more recent integration steps. Our results ask for additional efforts to complete the Eurasian integration and let its member countries fully benefit from its hoped-for long-term effects.
Bilateral trade , Eurasian economic union , Mean balancing , Policy evaluation , Preferential trade agreements
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Sapienza University of Rome (Italy), Department of Social Sciences and Economics, P.le A. Moro, 5, Rome, 00185, Italy
University of Sussex, Department of Economics, Jubilee Building, Falmer, Brighton, BN1 9SJ, United Kingdom
Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Kazakhstan
Sapienza University of Rome (Italy)
University of Sussex
Al-Farabi Kazakh National University
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