Expert-statistical method of management decision support for agricultural enterprises of northern Kazakhstan
Mauina G.M. Chertkova E.A. Nukusheva S.A. Aitimova U.Z.H. Ismailova A.A.
30 July 2021Little Lion Scientific
Journal of Theoretical and Applied Information Technology
2021#99Issue 123071 - 3083 pp.
The article deals with the problem of making management decisions on the production scenarios of agricultural enterprises in Northern Kazakhstan. The problem is caused by the presence of a set of criteria (parameters) of production and market conditions, the correctness of the criteria determines the quality of making a management decision on the preferred scenario for the functioning of an agricultural object. The purpose of the study is to structure the problem and formalize the problem of decision-making on the choice of the scenario of rational organization of production at the enterprises of the agricultural sector of Northern Kazakhstan in the conditions of multi-criteria factors of influence. The research methodology is based on a systematic approach that allows us to consider a system of interdependent components (resources, production scenarios) as a closed logical structure that provides rules for analyzing a complex problem. The heuristic analytical hierarchy process is used as a mathematical tool of the system approach for solving the multi-criteria problem of choosing the preferred scenario. The hierarchical approach is implemented for the decomposition into groups of the considered set of interdependent components with the procedure of sequential clustering of the components. Based on this method, the problem of making management decisions on the scenarios of production of agricultural enterprises is structured in the form of a dominant hierarchy of four levels. Groups of criteria that characterize the production conditions of an agricultural enterprise are identified. To determine the degree of influence (priorities) of the criteria, it is recommended to introduce expert assessments of the criteria with a transition from qualitative to quantitative characteristics based on a verbal-numerical unified scale. The technology for calculating criteria priorities is based on the matrices of paired comparisons and their eigenvectors. The practical application of the expert-statistical method based on the analysis of hierarchies of interdependent criteria allows us to obtain a management decision on the choice of the optimal production scenario for agricultural enterprises in Northern Kazakhstan in the conditions of multi-criteria factors of influence.
Analytical hierarchy process , Decision-making , Hierarchy of systems , Multi-criteria tasks
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Department of Information Systems, S.Seifullin Kazakh Agrotechnical University, Kazakhstan
Department of Software Engineering, National Research University, Higher School of Economics”, Russian Federation
Agrarian Technique and Technology Department, S.Seifullin Kazakh Agrotechnical University, Kazakhstan
Department of Information Systems
Department of Software Engineering
Agrarian Technique and Technology Department
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