MARKAKOL LAKE LEVEL REGIME AS INDICATOR OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Madibekov A.S. Karimov A.M. Ismukhanova L.T. Zhadi A.O. Bolatov K.M.
2024National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Kazakhstan
News of the National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Series of Geology and Technical Sciences
2024#2024Issue 382 - 94 pp.
The results of the study of fluctuations in the level of Markakol Lake under the influence of climate change are considered. Markakol is one of the high–altitude lakes of Kazakhstan, into which several relatively large rivers flow, including the Urunhaika River, and the Kalzhir River flows from the lake. Lake level Markakol and the flowing river are considered as the main components of the water balance of Markakol Lake. Based on statistical analysis, regression models of levels depending on air temperature are obtained. It has been established that the average monthly values of the level in Markakol Lake, in the period from April to November, have a close correlation with the air temperature at the level of 0.60. The average seasonal level of the summer period of the Kalzhir River (near the village of Chernyaevka) has an inverse correlation with the average monthly temperature in May, at minus 0.65. This is due to the evaporation process, which directly depends on the temperature background of the intermountain depression (graben) in which the lake is located. The obtained regression equations allow us to estimate fluctuations in water levels. The inflow of water into the lake will increase by 0.2 % on average with a projected increase in air temperature at 0.25 °C/ decade, and the outflow from the lake will decrease by about 3 %. It will also be necessary to build an evaporation model for the final assessment of changes in the level of Markakol Lake under the influence of changes in air temperature. A more detailed analysis of the components of the water balance indicates a decrease in the water level in the lake by 0.266 %. In the end, in general, the water level in the lake is expected to drop by no more than 0.1 % per decade.
climate change , evaporation , lake , temperature , water balance , water level
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JSC «Institute of geography and water security» MSHE RK, Almaty, Kazakhstan
LLP «Fesenkov Astrophysical Institute», Almaty, Kazakhstan
JSC «Institute of geography and water security» MSHE RK
LLP «Fesenkov Astrophysical Institute»
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