Trade-offs and synergies in crop planting structure of oasis area
Ma W. Jin Q. Yang J. Ma Y. Kolli M.K. Wang X. Kerimbayevich Y.F.
2025Springer Science and Business Media B.V.
Environment, Development and Sustainability
2025
Agricultural water use, net crop output value and grain output are the urgent problems to be solved in oasis areas, but how to balance the relationship among the three remains unclear. Here, we analyzed water requirements (2001–2021) for corn, wheat, and tubers in Zhangye, China, using the Penman–Monteith equation and Irrigation quota method. An iterative multi-objective optimization model covering six crops was established to synergize water demand and economic benefits under three scenarios. The results indicate that: (1) The water demand of corn surged by 644%, concentrated in central-northern zones, while wheat demand declined by 40%. Tubers dominated southeastern water use (90% in 2021). (2) Ridge regression identified planting area (positive) and precipitation (negative) as primary drivers, explaining 85% of water demand variation. (3) Three scenarios were developed using the multi-objective optimization model. The water-conserving scenario saves about 4% of water demand and increases net output value by 43%. The food security-oriented scenario saves about 0.5% of water demand and increases net value by 20%. The economic benefit-driven scenario increases net value by about 49% and saves about 3% of water demand. Scenario simulation provides scientific trade-off schemes for adjusting crop planting structure, and policymakers should prioritize flexible planting quotas in water-stressed areas and incentivize low-water crops to ensure sustainable oasis management. This study establishes a transferable framework for offering evidence-based strategies for regions confronting comparable sustainability challenges.
Agricultural water , Multi-objective optimization , Oasis agriculture , Scenario setting , Zhangye City
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College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China
College of Geography and Environmental Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou, 730000, China
School of Resource and Environmental Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430079, China
Department of Geography, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, 16803, PA, United States
Kazakh National Agrarian Research Univeristy, Almaty, 050010, Kazakhstan
College of Earth and Environmental Sciences
College of Geography and Environmental Science
School of Resource and Environmental Sciences
Department of Geography
Kazakh National Agrarian Research Univeristy
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