Assessment of the Influence of Climatic Factors on the Incidence of Crimean Hemorrhagic Fever: a Comprehensive Analysis of Data for Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkey and Iran between 1999 and 2022
оценка влияния климатических факторов на заболеваемость Крымской геморрагической лихорадкой: комплексный анализ данных по россии, Казахстану, Турции и ирану с 1999 по 2022 г.
Lizinfeld I.A. Pshenichnaya N.Yu. Naidenova E.V. Gurkin G.A. Blinova K.D. Abuova G.N. Leblebicioglu H. Mardani M. Akimkin V.G.
2024Russian Research Anti-Plague Institute
Problemy Osobo Opasnykh Infektsii
2024Issue 3133 - 143 pp.
In recent decades, the epidemiology of vector-borne infectious diseases has changed significantly due to global warming, which affects the habitats of vectors and increases the rate of spread of pathogens. This can lead to both the expansion of the boundaries of existing and the emergence of new natural foci of infectious diseases, including Crimean hemorrhagic fever (CHF). The aim of the study was to comprehensively assess the possible impact of climatic factors on the incidence of CHF in the endemic areas of Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkey and Iran in 1999–2022. Materials and methods. The data on the number of laboratory-confirmed cases of CHF in the endemic regions of Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkey and Iran were analyzed and compared with annual climatic indicators (average annual temperature, the highest and lowest average annual temperatures and average annual precipitation) starting from 1999. Results and discussion. During the observation period, the incidence of CHF in the regions under consideration was featured in a variety of trends. Correlation analysis revealed a positive relation between the average annual precipitation and CHF cases (rxy=0.553; p<0.001), while temperature parameters were not statistically significant. Regression analysis confirmed the importance of dummy variables representing countries and time period, but did not show statistically significant relations between climatic factors. The total (in the countries under consideration) average annual precipitation is a statistically significant factor (b=1.600; s.e.=0.192; p<0.001), which emphasizes the potential impact of changing climatic conditions on the spread of the Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus. The multiple linear regression method revealed a statistically significant effect of the highest air temperature (b=27.645; s.e.=7.859; p<0.001) and precipitation (b=1.473; s.e.=0.197; p<0.001) on the incidence of CHF. The study shows the need to include annual climate forecasting in CHF control strategies and to develop unified monitoring systems for a more accurate assessment of the epidemiological situation in endemic regions.
Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus , endemic regions , global climate warming , incidence of Crimean hemorrhagic fever , the impact of climate change on morbidity rates
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Central Research Institute of Epidemiology, 3a, Novogireevskaya St., Moscow, 111123, Russian Federation
Russian Medical Academy of Continuing Professional Education, 2/1, Barrikadnaya St., Moscow, 125993, Russian Federation
Moscow Regional Research and Clinical Institute, M.F. Vladimirsky, 61/2, Shchepkin St., Moscow, 129110, Russian Federation
Russian Research Anti-Plague Institute “Microbe”., 46, Universitetskaya St., Saratov, 410005, Russian Federation
South Kazakhstan Medical Academy, 1/1, Al-Farabi Sq., Shymkent, 160019, Kazakhstan
Infectious Diseases Department, VM Medical Park Samsun Hospital, Samsun, Turkey
Infectious Diseases and Tropical Medicine Research Center, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
Central Research Institute of Epidemiology
Russian Medical Academy of Continuing Professional Education
Moscow Regional Research and Clinical Institute
Russian Research Anti-Plague Institute “Microbe”.
South Kazakhstan Medical Academy
Infectious Diseases Department
Infectious Diseases and Tropical Medicine Research Center
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