Cross-border cooperation increases agro-pastoral production resilience in climate extremes of transboundary river basins
Lin J. Izimov R. Wu T. Huang Y. Yeerboli A. Yang P. Chen S. Qiu B.
10 December 2025Elsevier Ltd
Journal of Cleaner Production
2025#535
Climate change is expected to significantly impact agro-pastoral resilience in transboundary river basins, where shifting precipitation patterns and extreme weather events pose serious challenges to ecosystem stability. This study examines the current and future dynamics of agro-pastoral production potential (ALPP) and resilience in the Irtysh River Basin, spanning China, Kazakhstan, and Russia, using CMIP6 climate scenarios. The methodology integrates the Vegetation Photosynthesis Model (VPM) for baseline ALPP estimation with a Random Forest model to produce 1 km resolution projections, while a PCA-based resilience index (RI) quantifies system stability. Notably, although ALPP declines by up to 2.4 % across scenarios, resilience exhibits more erratic transitions; under high-emission scenarios (SSP370 and SSP585), very low resilience areas expand by nearly 300 % and high resilience zones collapse by over 80 %, indicating that adaptive capacity deteriorates more sharply than production potential under extreme climate pressures. In contrast, cooperative adaptation scenarios incorporating transboundary water reallocation and technology transfer, lead to marked improvements: by 2050, areas with very low resilience decline by about 4000 km2 (around 25 %), while high-resilience zones expand by 15–20 %. These changes enhance the basins capacity to adapt to climate change and mitigate risks to food security and regional stability.
Agro-pastoral productivity , Climate change scenarios , Resilience index , Transboundary cooperation
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Institute of Carbon Neutrality, Tongji University, Shanghai, 200092, China
National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Almaty, 010000, Kazakhstan
School of Economics and Management, Tongji University, Shanghai, 200092, China
College of Systems Engineering, City University of Hong Kong, 999077, Hong Kong
School of Political Science and International Relations, Tongji University, Shanghai, 200092, China
Institute of Carbon Neutrality
National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Kazakhstan
School of Economics and Management
College of Systems Engineering
School of Political Science and International Relations
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