Precipitation dynamics in southern central Asia during marine isotope stage 5: Implications for early modern human dispersal
Li Y. Song Y. Fitzsimmons K.E. Dave A.K. Zeeden C. Nie J. Yang S. Aminov J.
1 December 2025Elsevier Ltd
Quaternary Science Reviews
2025#369
Past warm periods provide important analogues for future warming. Marine Isotope Stage 5 (MIS 5, ∼130–∼70 ka) – the most recent warm interglacial – serves as a crucial testbed for evaluating potential impacts of future climate change on Central Asian hydroclimate, yet high-resolution precipitation records from this vast region remain exceptionally sparse. Consequently, the mechanisms governing MIS 5 moisture variability across Central Asia (CA), and their broader implications for ecosystem dynamics and early human dispersals, are still poorly resolved. This study reconstructed precipitation variability in Tajikistan, southern CA, during MIS 5, using principal component analysis of multiple paleoclimatic proxies preserved within loess deposits. The results reveal that the precipitation pattern in southern CA differs markedly from those in other parts of Eurasia. We investigated the likely factors influencing the difference using Convergent Cross-Mapping (CCM), and identified a fundamental transition around 102 ka for precipitation dynamics in southern CA, moving from a predominantly westerlies-forced state to a regime limited by moisture availability in source regions. Temperature-driven atmospheric moisture emerged as the primary determinant. Our findings offer valuable insights into near-future climate scenarios in southern CA, such as a likely regional increase in rainfall. Based on the MIS 5 precipitation reconstruction, we argue that the dominance of cold-season precipitation in southern CA may have impeded the northward migration of anatomically modern human (AMH) during MIS 5 north of the Central Asian mountains. We therefore recommend incorporating precipitation seasonality into simulations of AMH dispersal as a factor influencing dispersal routes and timing.
Anatomically modern human dispersal , Central Asia , Marine isotope stage 5 , Paleo-precipitation reconstruction , Westerlies
Text of the article Перейти на текст статьи
State Key Laboratory of Loess Science, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xian, 710061, China
School of Earth Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University, Clayton, 3168, VIC, Australia
Institute of Earth Surface Dynamics, University of Lausanne, Switzerland
Leibniz Institute for Applied Geophysics, Stilleweg 2, Hannover, 30655, Germany
Key Laboratory of Mineral Resources in Western China (Gansu Province), School of Earth Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China
Key Laboratory of Western Chinas Environmental System (Ministry of Education), College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China
School of Mining and Geosciences, Nazarbayev University, Astana, 010000, Kazakhstan
Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Western Macedonia, Kozani, 50100, Greece
State Key Laboratory of Loess Science
School of Earth Atmosphere and Environment
Institute of Earth Surface Dynamics
Leibniz Institute for Applied Geophysics
Key Laboratory of Mineral Resources in Western China (Gansu Province)
Key Laboratory of Western Chinas Environmental System (Ministry of Education)
School of Mining and Geosciences
Department of Chemical Engineering
10 лет помогаем публиковать статьи Международный издатель
Книга Публикация научной статьи Волощук 2026 Book Publication of a scientific article 2026