DYNAMIC-STOCHASTIC MODEL OF SUSTAINABLE WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT IN KAZAKHSTAN
ҚАЗАҚСТАННЫҢ СУ РЕСУРСТАРЫН ТҰРАҚТЫ БАСҚАРУДЫҢ ДИНАМИКАЛЫҚ-СТОХАСТИКАЛЫҚ МОДЕЛІ
ДИНАМИКО-СТОХАСТИЧЕСКАЯ МОДЕЛЬ УСТОЙЧИВОГО УПРАВЛЕНИЯ ВОДНЫМИ РЕСУРСАМИ КАЗАХСТАНА
Leman M. Tairov A. Malkovskiy I. Toleubaeva L. Aldiyarova A.
2025National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Kazakhstan
News of the National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Series of Geology and Technical Sciences
2025#2025Issue 6151 - 167 pp.
Water resource systems are characterized by numerous uncertainties that cause significant variability in water distribution, particularly in watersheds with sizeable irrigation areas, diverse water users, and multiple water sources. The purpose of this study is to develop an integrated methodological approach for identifying and assessing extreme water-resource situations that lead to major socio-economic and environmental consequences. To achieve this, a dynamic– stochastic approach is applied to describe the temporal evolution of water management systems under random and unpredictable external factors. The proposed dynamic–stochastic model integrates hydrological, environmental, and economic components into a unified mathematical programming framework aimed at maximising economic benefits across different water-using sectors. This makes it possible to analyse combined environmental–economic issues within a consistent modelling environment. The results include the development of innovative simulation software for transboundary river-basin modelling capable of simulating and evaluating a broad range of hydro-economic parameters and generating comprehensive water-supply scenarios. The novelty of the work lies in the creation of a modelling tool and methodological framework that have not previously been applied to the study of complex river basins. The model was validated and tested using the Ile–Balkhash River Basin, selected due to its hydrological complexity and high sensitivity to climatic and anthropogenic pressures. The tests revealed the strengths and weaknesses of the system, demonstrated the adequacy of model responses to external impacts, and confirmed the applicability of the methodology for further analysis and forecasting in other river basins.
Balkhash Lake , hydroeconomic modeling , Ile–Balkhash Basin , river basin modeling , simulation software
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JSC Institute of Geography and Water Security, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Kazakh National Agrarian Research University, Almaty, Kazakhstan
JSC Institute of Geography and Water Security
Kazakh National Agrarian Research University
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