Relationship between the Fluence of Magnetospheric Electrons with Energies above 2 MeV and Geomagnetic and Interplanetary Characteristics in 1987–2021
Kryakunova O.N. Belov A.V. Yakovets A.F. Abunin A.A. Tsepakina I.L. Seifullina B.B. Abunina M.A. Nikolayevskiy N.F. Shlyk N.S.
December 2022Pleiades Publishing
Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences: Physics
2022#86Issue 121532 - 1536 pp.
Abstract: Coefficients of correlation are calculated for the daily electron fluence, solar wind velocity, and the Ар-index of geomagnetic activity with different delays, along with electron fluences obtained for subsequent days using a dataset from 35 years (1987–2021) of measuring magnetospheric electron fluxes with energies of more than 2 MeV in geostationary orbits, solar wind velocity, and geomagnetic activity. A three-parameter model is developed that allows the fluence of high-energy magnetospheric electrons for the next day to be predicted on the basis of the prehistory of the behavior of the fluence, data on the Ap-index of geomagnetic activity, and measurements of the solar wind speed. Model calculations are in good agreement with experimental data with a high coefficient of correlation (0.82) for the period 1987–2021.
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Institute of the Ionosphere, Almaty, 050020, Kazakhstan
Lebedev Physical Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, 119991, Russian Federation
Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radio Wave Propagation, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, 108840, Russian Federation
Institute of the Ionosphere
Lebedev Physical Institute
Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism
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