A statistical relationship between the fluence of magnetospheric relativistic electrons and interplanetary and geomagnetic characteristics

Kryakunova O.N. Belov A.V. Yakovets A.F. Abunin A.A. Tsepakina I.L. Seifullina B.B. Abunina M.A. Nikolayevskiy N.F. Shlyk N.S.
15 December 2023 Elsevier Ltd

Advances in Space Research
2023 #72 Issue 12 5391 - 5398 pp.

The correlation coefficients between the electron fluence, the solar wind speed and the geomagnetic activity Ap-index with different delay times are calculated. Calculations are based on measurements of magnetospheric electron fluxes with energy >2 MeV in geostationary orbits for 35 years (1987–2021).We use >2 MeV relativistic electron flux measurements from the different Energetic Particle Sensors (EPS) on the geosynchronous spacecrafts GOES. The correlation coefficients between electron fluences on neighboring days are calculated as well. There is significant inertia in the behavior of the fluence of high-energy magnetospheric electrons. It is found that the fluence of high-energy magnetospheric electrons is weakly related to the level of geomagnetic activity on the same day, but correlates with the geomagnetic activity Ap-index observed 2–3 days earlier. The fluence of high-energy magnetospheric electrons is quite closely related to the speed of the solar wind, especially with the speed measured 2 days earlier. In general, in cycles 22–24 of solar activity, higher correlation coefficients of the electron fluence with the solar wind speed and the Ap-index are observed in the phases of decline and minimum of solar activity. A three-parameter model has also been obtained based on the prehistory of the fluence behavior, data on the Ap-index of geomagnetic activity, and measurements of the solar wind speed. The created model allows to make the prediction of high-energy magnetospheric electrons fluence for the next day.The model shows good agreement with the experimental data with a high correlation coefficient (0.82) for the entire period 1987–2021.

Electron fluence , Geomagnetic activity , Magnetosperic electron , Radiation belts , Solar cycle , Solar wind

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Institute of the Ionosphere of the National Center for Space Research and Technology, ST “Ionosphere”, 117, Almaty, 050020, Kazakhstan
Lebedev Physical Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Leninsky Prospect, 53, Moscow, 119991, Russian Federation
Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation (IZMIRAN), Russian Academy of Sciences, Kaluzhskoe Hwy, 4, Moscow, Troitsk, 108840, Russian Federation

Institute of the Ionosphere of the National Center for Space Research and Technology
Lebedev Physical Institute
Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism

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