Climate Change Impacts and Atmospheric Teleconnections on Runoff Dynamics in the Upper-Middle Amu Darya River of Central Asia
Kong L. Li Y. Ma L. Zhang J. Deng X. Abuduwaili J. Gulayozov M.
March 2025Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI)
Water (Switzerland)
2025#17Issue 5
In arid regions, water scarcity necessitates reliance on surface runoff as a vital water source. Studying the impact of climate change on surface runoff can provide a scientific basis for optimizing water use and ensuring water security. This study investigated runoff patterns in the upper-middle Amu Darya River (UADR) from 1960 to 2015. Special emphasis was placed on the effects of climatic factors and the role of major atmospheric circulation indices, such as the Eurasian Zonal Circulation Index (EZI), Niño 3.4, and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The results show a significant linear decreasing annual trend in runoff at a rate of 2.5 × 108 m3/year, with an abrupt change in 1972. Runoff exhibited periodic characteristics at 8–16 and 32–64 months. At the 8–16-month scale, runoff was primarily influenced by precipitation (PRE), actual evapotranspiration (AET), and snow water equivalent (SWE), and, at the 32–64-month scale, Niño 3.4 guided changes in runoff. In addition, El Niño 3.4 interacted with the EZI and IOD, which, together, influence runoff at the UADR. This study highlights the importance of considering multiple factors and their interactions when predicting runoff variations and developing water resource management strategies in the UADR Basin. The analysis of nonlinear runoff dynamics in conjunction with multiscale climate factors provides a theoretical basis for the management of water, land, and ecosystems in the Amu Darya Basin.
amu darya river , atmospheric teleconnections , Central Asia , climate change , runoff dynamics
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State Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, 830011, China
Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, 830011, China
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China
China-Kazakhstan Joint Laboratory for Remote Sensing Technology and Application, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty, 050012, Kazakhstan
Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia (Dushanbe), Dushanbe, 734024, Tajikistan
State Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands
Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
China-Kazakhstan Joint Laboratory for Remote Sensing Technology and Application
Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia (Dushanbe)
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